BIDU
Baidu
China
★ Quality 22/100Price today
$107.51
what the market pays
Worth
$160.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 33% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Undervalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $160.00 per share. Today's price of $107.51 is 49% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 33% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $128.00.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$128.00
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$152.00
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$107.51
+49% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
China's Google, defending its search engine from chatbots.
Baidu is China's Google: online search monetized via ads (~70% of revenue). The rest comes from AI Cloud (+34% YoY) and bets like Apollo Go, its robotaxi.
Historic dominance in Mandarin search and a massive database to train AI. The moat is eroding: ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are eating its traffic, and traditional search is losing relevance against chatbots.
Revenue history
From $16.4B to $18.4B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $18.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $96 goes to costs and operations; $4 is left as net profit (4% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Net cash of ~$40B = 100%+ of current market cap.
AI Cloud growing 34% YoY, already profitable.
Apollo Go scaling to 100+ cities with unit cost coming down.
Negative OCF projected FY2025 — the core business is fading.
VIE risk: you don't own Chinese shares, you own a contract in the Caymans.
Legacy search in structural decline against generative AI and super-apps.
Charlie's note
“At 8x you pay little, but for a reason: the search moat is eroding while ByteDance and company bite in, and revenue is already retreating 3%. The 50% margin and optionality in AI and robotaxis justify a look, not enthusiasm; here you get paid to wait and see if the business reinvents itself.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Baidu?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.