SHOP
Shopify
Hybrid Fintech
★ Quality 27/100Price today
$145.09
This company value is already calculated
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See what it is worthcharlieapp.co
Where does the value come from?
This business isn't one thing: its value is built by adding up parts, and each is valued differently.
recurring subscription: revenue that repeats as long as the customer stays.
payments: a fee on every transaction that runs through its network.
What this business is made of
The business
Shopify is the operating system for all commerce that isn't Amazon.
Shopify provides the commerce infrastructure for 5+ million merchants: online store, payments, capital and logistics. 78% of the $9.3B in revenue comes from Merchant Services — it charges on GMV processed (~$300B annually), not on subscriptions.
High switching costs: moving a store with customer history, integrations and apps is painful. The ecosystem of 13,000+ apps and partners makes Shopify the operating system of commerce outside Amazon. It's not a monopoly, but the network effect between merchants, developers and Shop Pay is real.
Revenue history
From $4.6B to $9.3B in 4 years — nearly 2.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $11.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Shopify Payments penetration rises from ~64% to 70%+ of GMV, expanding take rate.
Shopify Markets and cross-border: international GMV growing >30% annually.
Operating margin scaling: from 11% in 2024 toward 15%+ with operating leverage.
Amazon Buy with Prime directly attacks fulfillment and buyer loyalty.
Tariffs and recession hit small merchants first — their most vulnerable base.
Valuation demands perfect growth: any GMV slowdown gets punished fast.
Charlie's note
“At 13x sales you pay dearly for a business growing ~25% that monetizes the GMV of half the world's commerce; the switching-cost moat is real, but at that multiple you supply the margin of error yourself. Here the virtue is called patience.”
Analysis · May 2026
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