SHOP
Shopify
Hybrid Fintech
Price today
$121.48
what the market pays
Worth
$87.43
calculated cycle value
Price is 39% above its value
charlieapp.co
Where does the value come from?
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $87.43 per share. Today's price of $121.48 is 28% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 39% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $83.06.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$69.94
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$83.06
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$121.48
-28% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Shopify is the operating system for all commerce that isn't Amazon.
Shopify provides the commerce infrastructure for 5+ million merchants: online store, payments, capital and logistics. 78% of the $9.3B in revenue comes from Merchant Services — it charges on GMV processed (~$300B annually), not on subscriptions.
High switching costs: moving a store with customer history, integrations and apps is painful. The ecosystem of 13,000+ apps and partners makes Shopify the operating system of commerce outside Amazon. It's not a monopoly, but the network effect between merchants, developers and Shop Pay is real.
Revenue history
From $4.6B to $9.3B in 4 years — nearly 2.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $11.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Shopify Payments penetration rises from ~64% to 70%+ of GMV, expanding take rate.
Shopify Markets and cross-border: international GMV growing >30% annually.
Operating margin scaling: from 11% in 2024 toward 15%+ with operating leverage.
Amazon Buy with Prime directly attacks fulfillment and buyer loyalty.
Tariffs and recession hit small merchants first — their most vulnerable base.
Valuation demands perfect growth: any GMV slowdown gets punished fast.
Charlie's note
“At 13x sales you pay dearly for a business growing ~25% that monetizes the GMV of half the world's commerce; the switching-cost moat is real, but at that multiple you supply the margin of error yourself. Here the virtue is called patience.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Shopify?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $83.06 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.