TFC

TFC

Truist Financial

Bank / BV

★ Quality 20/100
Overvalued

Price today

$51.47

what the market pays

Worth

$38.53

calculated TBV value

Worth $38.53price today $51.47

Price is 34% above its value

charlieapp.co

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$27.1$36.2$45.3$54.4$63.5'21'22'23'24'25'26TFCVI $38.5 · MdS -25%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

Why Overvalued?

The model estimates an intrinsic value of $38.53 per share. Today's price of $51.47 is 25% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.

⚠️

The price is 34% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.

⚠️

Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.

💡

The next reasonable entry zone starts at $36.60.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$30.82

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$36.60

-5% off Value

🔴 Today

$51.47

-25% Valor

🔴

Overvalued

The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

Two merged banks that keep customers out of laziness, not merit.

Truist is the sixth-largest bank in the U.S., born from the 2019 merger of BB&T and SunTrust. It makes money on the net interest margin (lends high, pays little on deposits) plus corporate banking and wealth management fees. Net income of $5.0B on a deposit base in the U.S. Southeast.

Its only real advantage is branch density and cheap deposits in high-growth Southeast markets —the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida. There's no tech or brand moat; customers stay out of inertia and the cost of switching banks. That's a friction moat, not an excellence one.

Revenue history

$22.0B
2021
$23.0B
2022
$22.9B
2023
$20.7B
2024
$20.5B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +-2%

From $22.0B to $20.5B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $5.9B · FY2025

Costs and operations$922M · 16%
Net profit$5.0B · 84%

Of every $100 in sales, $16 goes to costs and operations; $84 is left as net profit (84% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Deployment of the ~$15.5B from the sale of Truist Insurance Holdings (2024) into buybacks and balance sheet repositioning.

Fed cuts in 2025-2026 that lower deposit costs and widen the net interest margin.

Buyback program that reduces shares while trading below intrinsic value of $38.53.

⚠️

Debt of $42.0B and cash reported at zero: a leveraged balance sheet sensitive to liquidity shocks.

⚠️

Estimated CAGR of -14%: the business is contracting, not growing.

⚠️

Exposure to commercial real estate and uninsured deposits, the Achilles' heel of regional banks since 2023.

Charlie's note

A regional bank without a true moat is a buy-cheap-and-pray-on-management business. At 0.77x it trades at a discount for a reason: the engine is losing revolutions. It's only interesting if you trust the team to allocate the insurance-sale capital well.

Analysis · June 2026

So when would be a good price for Truist Financial?

By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $36.60 — so you do not have to keep checking.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.