V
Visa Inc.
Platform / Network
★ Quality 76/100Price today
$356.48
what the market pays
Worth
$207.55
calculated cycle value
Price is 72% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$207.55
per share
How it's calculated
IV model = FCF floor. Market pays +40% premium for the irreplaceable network moat (4.3B cards × 130M+ merchants × 200 countries). ROE 52.9%. Buybacks $18.3B/year structurally compress shares. Risks: CCCA, stablecoins, open banking. Attractive <$209, BARGAIN <$176.
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 34.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
42% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (20.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $10.27/share × 20.2x multiplier = $207.55 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $356.48 is 42% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 72% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $197.17.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$166.04
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$197.17
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$356.48
-42% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Visa charges pennies on every card swipe on the planet.
Visa runs the world's largest payments network: 4.3B cards, 130M+ merchants, 200 countries. It takes a toll (pennies per transaction) every time someone swipes a card. It doesn't lend, doesn't take credit risk — it just charges to move bits.
Two-sided network effect: merchants accept Visa because everyone carries it, and everyone carries it because everyone accepts it. Replicating this takes decades and billions — Meta tried with Libra and died trying. ROE 52.9% is no accident.
Revenue history
From $24.1B to $39.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $40.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $50 goes to costs and operations; $50 is left as net profit (50% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Buybacks of $18.3B/year compress the share count ~2-3% annually.
Cross-border payment volume growing double digits post-pandemic.
Visa Direct and value-added services already make up ~25% of revenue, growing 20%+.
The Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) could force alternative routing on debit and compress the take rate.
Stablecoins on public rails (USDC, PYUSD) threaten the toll on remittances and B2B.
Open banking and account-to-account payments (Pix in Brazil, UPI in India) bypassing the network entirely.
Charlie's note
“Paying 20.2x for a toll with 60% gross margin and a moat that killed even Meta's attempt is one of the reasonable things you come across; 11% growth isn't heroic, but you don't need it when you charge pennies from the whole world. Patience.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Visa Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $197.17 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.