AXP
American Express
Platform / Network
★ Quality 92/100Price today
$349.55
what the market pays
Worth
$386.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 9% below its value
charlieapp.co
A closed-loop payments network
American Express controls both the card-issuing and the merchant side of its 170-year-old network. A moat Visa or Mastercard cannot easily replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$386.00
per share
How it's calculated
Closed-loop network 170+ years. Revenue $72B (+10%). Card fees $10B (+18%). feeBasedPlatform. ATTRACTION. BARGAIN <$270.
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 22.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 28.5x.
11% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (25x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Discounted?
Its free cash flow is $15.45/share × 25.0x multiplier = $386.00 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $349.55 is 10% below value — a moderate discount, a good spot to enter gradually.
The price is 9% off the calculated value. Close, but without the ideal discount.
It's fine to buy in pieces. Monthly DCA works well here.
For a bigger safety margin, wait for $308.80 or less.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$308.80
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$366.70
-5% off Value
🟡 Today
$349.55
+10% Valor
Discounted
The price is close to value. There's no big discount, but it's reasonable to invest in pieces.
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
They charge the toll and lend the car: the only one that does both.
American Express issues cards and runs its own payments network at the same time, a rare combo in the sector. It makes money three ways: fees it charges merchants on every purchase, annual fees on its premium cards, and interest on the balances it finances.
Closed-loop network with 170 years of history: they see every transaction end to end, data nobody else has. Their high-income clientele spends more and pays three-digit fees without blinking. Replicating that brand and that spending base takes decades, not money.
Revenue history
From $42.4B to $72.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $41.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $74 goes to costs and operations; $26 is left as net profit (26% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Card fees grew 18% to $10B; high-income young people keep signing up.
Revenue at $72B with +10% annual growth, driven by resilient premium-customer spending.
FCF of $16B funds buybacks and growing dividends without diluting.
Debt of $56B and thin cash: a business that lives on credit suffers in a deep recession.
Depends on discretionary spending; if the premium customer pulls back, fee revenue drops.
Regulators are watching merchant fees in several countries.
Charlie's note
“Paying 25x for a business that compounds at 13% with a 170-year moat isn't a gift, but it isn't crazy either. Quality rarely comes at a discount.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for American Express?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.