CIEN
Ciena
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 20/100Price today
$379.78
what the market pays
Worth
$41.49
calculated cycle value
Price is 815% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$44.47
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 35 peers
You pay 79.2x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.
88% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (9.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 9.2x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 35.5x. This one drops from there:
High debt. debt payments drain cash before it reaches you.
That's why it's worth 9.2x, less than the 35.5x average.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $4.83/share × 9.2x multiplier minus $2.98 in negative net cash = $41.49 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $379.78 is 89% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 815% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $39.42.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$33.19
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$39.42
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$379.78
-89% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Fabrica los láseres que mueven cada bit por la fibra del planeta.
Ciena vende equipos de redes ópticas: los sistemas que empujan datos a través de cables de fibra, incluidos los submarinos que cruzan océanos. Cobra por el hardware (sus motores ópticos WaveLogic), por software de gestión de red y por servicios de mantenimiento a operadores de telecom y a las grandes nubes. Facturó $4.8B con 42% de margen bruto.
Su ventaja está en la tecnología óptica coherente: exprimir más datos por cada hilo de fibra, donde va varias generaciones adelante. Una vez instalada en la red troncal de un operador, cambiarla es caro y arriesgado, así que los clientes se quedan. Aun así, Nokia y Cisco pelean el mismo terreno, y eso limita el poder de fijar precios.
Revenue history
From $3.6B to $4.8B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $4.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $97 goes to costs and operations; $3 is left as net profit (3% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Demanda de centros de datos de IA que necesitan conectar servidores a alta velocidad (interconexión).
Adopción de 800G y renovación de cables submarinos hacia 2026.
Crecimiento de ventas a hiperescaladores (grandes nubes como Google y Amazon), ya cerca de un quinto de los ingresos.
Los operadores de telecom recortan inversión en ciclos; los pedidos llegan a tirones.
Margen neto de apenas ~2%: convierte poco de cada dólar vendido en ganancia.
Concentración de clientes: pocos gigantes deciden gran parte de la facturación.
Charlie's note
“Negocio sólido en ingeniería, flaco en ganancia neta: de cada dólar vendido queda una moneda. A 9x flujo de caja con 7% de crecimiento no te piden una locura, pero un foso mediano y un ciclo caprichoso significan que el precio de entrada importa más que de costumbre.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Ciena?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $39.42 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.