DLO

DLO

dLocal

Fintech TBV

Overvalued

Price today

$14.97

what the market pays

Worth

$4.15

calculated TBV value

Worth $4.15price today $14.97

Price is 261% above its value

charlieapp.co

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$2.92$18.2$33.5$48.7$64.0'21'22'23'24'25'26DLOVI $4.15 · MdS -72%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

Why Overvalued?

The model estimates an intrinsic value of $4.15 per share. Today's price of $14.97 is 72% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.

⚠️

The price is 261% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.

⚠️

Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.

💡

The next reasonable entry zone starts at $3.94.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$3.32

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$3.94

-5% off Value

🔴 Today

$14.97

-72% Valor

🔴

Overvalued

The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

Un solo cable conecta a Amazon con el efectivo de África y Latinoamérica.

dLocal conecta empresas globales como Amazon, Spotify o Uber con los métodos de pago locales de mercados emergentes. Cobra una comisión por cada pago que procesa, tanto de entrada como de salida. Facturó $1.1B con un margen bruto del 37%.

Su ventaja son cientos de integraciones con métodos de pago locales y licencias regulatorias en más de 40 países difíciles. Replicar esa red toma años y paciencia burocrática, pero no es un foso infranqueable: la competencia entra y los márgenes ya se están erosionando.

Revenue history

$0.4B
2022
$0.7B
2023
$0.7B
2024
$1.1B
2025
$1.5B
2026
CAGR 5 años: +39%

From $0.4B to $1.5B in 4 years — nearly 3.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $1.1B · FY2025

Cost of sales$691M · 63%
Operations$183M · 17%
Taxes and other$23M · 2%
Net profit$197M · 18%

Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Expansión en África y Asia, donde el porcentaje que cobra por transacción es más alto.

Nuevos contratos con grandes comercios globales que suben el volumen procesado.

$0.4B de flujo libre y $0.7B en caja permiten recompras de acciones.

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El margen bruto cayó al 37%: la comisión que cobra se está comprimiendo.

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Dependencia de pocos clientes grandes; perder uno duele.

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Devaluaciones y cambios regulatorios en monedas como el peso argentino o la naira nigeriana.

⚠️

Rivales con más músculo: Adyen, Stripe, EBANX.

Charlie's note

Crece 45% y cotiza a 2.2 veces flujo, precio de saldo con una razón detrás: sin foso y con márgenes deslizándose. Pagar poco por un negocio que se abarata solo no es lo mismo que comprar calidad.

Analysis · July 2026

So when would be a good price for dLocal?

By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $3.94 — so you do not have to keep checking.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.