FFIV
F5, Inc.
Recurring SaaS
Price today
$396.60
what the market pays
Worth
$276.83
calculated cycle value
Price is 43% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$253.92
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 34 peers
You pay 24.2x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 21.1x.
32% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (16.4x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $15.45/share × 16.4x multiplier plus $22.91 in net cash = $276.83 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $396.60 is 30% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 43% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $262.99.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$221.46
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$262.99
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$396.60
-30% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
F5 reparte el tráfico de internet para que ninguna app corporativa se ahogue.
F5 mantiene las aplicaciones de las grandes empresas rápidas, disponibles y seguras: reparte la carga entre servidores (balanceo) y filtra ataques. Cobra por equipos físicos, licencias de software por suscripción, soporte y servicios de seguridad en la nube. Ingresos de $3.1B, con margen bruto del 81%.
F5 está enterrado en el centro de datos de casi todo banco y aerolínea grande; su BIG-IP es infraestructura crítica y moverla implica riesgo de caídas. Ese costo de cambio le da pegajosidad, pero no es un foso profundo: los balanceadores nativos de la nube hacen parte del trabajo por menos.
Revenue history
From $2.6B to $3.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $3.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $78 goes to costs and operations; $22 is left as net profit (22% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Migración a software y suscripción (Distributed Cloud) elevando los ingresos recurrentes.
Servicios de seguridad —WAF, bots, protección de APIs— creciendo con el tráfico que genera la IA.
$0.9B de flujo de caja y cero deuda alimentando recompras de acciones.
AWS y Azure ofrecen balanceo integrado y barato, comoditizando el corazón del negocio.
El hardware físico se encoge cada año; la transición a software debe compensarlo.
Crecimiento del 4%: mercado maduro, poco margen para sorpresas al alza.
Charlie's note
“Pagar 16x el flujo de caja por algo que crece 4% no es regalo ni atraco. El margen del 81% y la deuda cero te protegen; la ausencia de foso te recuerda que Cloudflare no duerme la siesta.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for F5, Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $262.99 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.