GPN
Global Payments
Platform / Network
★ Quality 19/100Price today
$80.68
what the market pays
Worth
$47.21
calculated cycle value
Price is 71% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$93.51
per share
How it's calculated
Global Payments — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 15.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 28.5x.
26% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (11.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $8.42/share × 11.1x multiplier minus $46.30 in negative net cash = $47.21 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $80.68 is 41% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 71% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $44.85.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$37.77
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$44.85
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$80.68
-42% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The cash register built into the store: leaving hurts more than staying.
Global Payments processes payments for merchants: card, online, point-of-sale software. It takes a slice of every transaction, plus fees for software and integrated services. In 2025 it billed $7.7B with 73% gross margin and $2.0B in free cash flow.
There are real switching costs: once a restaurant or store integrates its payment system, migrating is a headache few take on. But it's not an unavoidable toll — Stripe, Square and the banks fight over the same square foot. The moat exists, it's just not deep.
Revenue history
From $6.6B to $7.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $7.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Integration of Global Payments + Worldpay after the 2025 deal; promised synergies of ~$600M.
Divestment of the Issuer Solutions business to focus the portfolio on merchants.
Aggressive buybacks: with $2.0B of FCF and depressed shares, every dollar bought back goes further.
Debt of $19.5B against cash of $8.3B — high leverage in a business with pressured margins.
Commoditization of processing: Stripe and Adyen compress prices year after year.
Estimated CAGR of -2%: the model projects the business shrinks, not grows.
Charlie's note
“For a business shrinking 2% you pay 11x, and that's not a giveaway for something with a switching-cost moat that Stripe and Square erode daily. The 73% margin impresses, but the patience here means waiting for the market to price in that this doesn't grow.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Global Payments?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $44.85 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.