LIN
Linde plc
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 53/100Price today
$505.68
what the market pays
Worth
$273.80
calculated cycle value
Price is 85% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$306.89
per share
How it's calculated
Linde plc — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 38.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 33.7x.
43% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (22x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $13.95/share × 22.0x multiplier minus $33.09 in negative net cash = $273.80 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $505.68 is 46% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 85% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $260.11.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$219.04
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$260.11
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$505.68
-46% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Builds its plant right next to your factory and marries you for 20 years.
Linde produces and distributes industrial gases —oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, argon— to refineries, steelmakers, hospitals, and semiconductor makers. It charges via 10-20 year take-or-pay contracts: the customer pays even if they don't consume. FY2025 revenue of $34.0B with gross margins of 49%.
The plants are built right next to the customer's factory, locked in by two-decade contracts. Moving gas more than 200km is uneconomical, so each plant is a regional monopoly. Replacing Linde means redesigning your own production.
Revenue history
From $30.8B to $34.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $34.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $80 goes to costs and operations; $20 is left as net profit (20% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Clean hydrogen project backlog above $10B, with plants coming online around 2026-2028.
Demand for ultra-pure gases for semiconductors growing with the expansion of fabs in the U.S. and Asia.
Buybacks and dividends: Linde raised its dividend 32 years in a row and buys back shares consistently.
Debt of $20.7B against cash of $5.1B; high rates make this capital-intensive business more expensive.
Modest organic growth (CAGR ~3%); much of the earnings per share comes from pricing and buybacks, not volume.
Cyclical exposure to steel, chemicals, and refining in a global recession hits variable volumes.
Charlie's note
“A boring business that prints cash for decades: exactly the type I like. The problem isn't quality, it's price —at 22x it's already paying for its own perfection.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Linde plc?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $260.11 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.