META
Meta Platforms
Platform / Network
★ Quality 82/100Price today
$633.53
what the market pays
Worth
$474.12
calculated cycle value
Price is 34% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
Facebook · Instagram · WhatsApp · Threads
$474.12
per share
How it's calculated
FCF $46.1B (OCF $115.8B - Capex $72.2B). Reality Labs -$19.2B/yr ($7.47/share). Adjusted FCFeco $13.58 × 28x + $8.91 = $389. Family of Apps: $198.8B revenue, $102.5B OM. CapEx guidance 2026: ~$60-65B (AI content). 3.4B DAP. Llama 4 + Muse Spark. UNDERVALUED <$311, ATTRACTIVE <$370.
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 37.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
25% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (28x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $16.93/share × 28.0x multiplier = $474.12 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $633.53 is 25% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 34% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $450.41.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$379.30
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$450.41
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$633.53
-25% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Meta rents out half of humanity's attention to anyone who wants to advertise.
Meta runs Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger: 3.4B daily users whose attention it sells to advertisers. The Family of Apps generated $198.8B with $102.5B in operating margin. Reality Labs burns $19.2B a year betting on glasses and the metaverse.
Network effects across four platforms that reinforce each other, plus a decade of targeting data no advertiser finds anywhere else. Llama and its own AI infrastructure lower the cost of improving the feed for every user. Not invulnerable: it depends on TikTok not stealing its minutes.
Revenue history
From $86.0B to $164.5B in 4 years — nearly 1.9x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $201.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $70 goes to costs and operations; $30 is left as net profit (30% margin).
Catalysts and risks
CapEx 2026 guidance $60-65B aimed at AI inference and better ad ranking.
Llama 4 and Muse Spark monetizing automated ad creative in 2025.
WhatsApp Business and click-to-message still not monetized at scale across 3.4B DAP.
Reality Labs burns $19.2B/yr with no visible path to profitability.
European regulation (DMA) and FTC antitrust trial over Instagram/WhatsApp.
TikTok and short-form formats keep pressuring engagement from the younger generation.
Charlie's note
“Paying 28x for a business growing 22% with an 82% gross margin and network effects across four platforms is one of the few places where the math and the moat line up; the risk isn't the multiple, it's that TikTok steals minutes and Reality Labs keeps burning cash without apologizing.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Meta Platforms?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $450.41 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.