MS
Morgan Stanley
Investment Bank
★ Quality 44/100Price today
$219.09
what the market pays
Worth
$117.10
calculated TBV value
Price is 87% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $117.10 per share. Today's price of $219.09 is 47% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 87% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $111.24.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$93.68
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$111.24
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$219.09
-47% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Takes a cut of every fortune it manages and every big deal it closes.
Morgan Stanley has two engines: investment banking (advising on mergers, IPOs, debt issuance) and wealth management (managing $7.3 trillion in assets for wealthy clients). It charges recurring fees on those assets —about 70% of its revenue already comes from stable fees— plus fees when it closes deals. It booked $70.6B with net income of $16.9B.
The edge is in wealth management: once a wealthy client trusts you with their money, moving it is a hassle and rare. That generates predictable fee income and a return on tangible capital (ROTCE) of 21.6%. Even so, it competes head-on with rivals just as strong; it's no impregnable moat.
Revenue history
From $59.8B to $70.6B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $70.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $76 goes to costs and operations; $24 is left as net profit (24% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Wealth management with $7.3B in assets generating growing recurring fees.
Return on tangible capital of 21.6%, among the best in the sector.
A recovery in mergers and IPOs would reignite investment banking.
Investment banking is cyclical: no deals, and the fees dry up.
Net income very sensitive to the swings of financial markets.
No real moat, so fee pressure from rivals erodes margins.
Charlie's note
“A business earning 21% on its tangible capital with no wall to protect it, growing around 15%. At 1.67 times book value you pay full quality, with no discount for the cyclical scares. Good business, bad time to rush.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Morgan Stanley?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $111.24 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.