MSCI
MSCI Inc.
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 82/100Price today
$564.74
what the market pays
Worth
$462.06
calculated cycle value
Price is 22% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$536.27
per share
How it's calculated
MSCI Inc. — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 31.3x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 20.3x.
16% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (26.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $20.42/share × 26.3x multiplier minus $74.21 in negative net cash = $462.06 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $564.74 is 18% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 22% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $438.96.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$369.65
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$438.96
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$564.74
-18% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
MSCI is the ruler the world uses to measure its money.
MSCI sells the indexes that move the world's institutional money —MSCI World, Emerging Markets, ACWI. It charges recurring licenses to asset managers and ETFs that track its indexes, plus subscriptions to risk data (RiskMetrics) and ESG. Of $3.1B in revenue, most is recurring with renewal rates near 95%.
When a $50B ETF tracks MSCI Emerging Markets, switching indexes means tracking differently from all the competition and confusing clients. Nobody moves. That regulatory and de facto standard network effect makes MSCI the silent arbiter of global benchmarking, with an 82% gross margin that reveals its pricing power.
Revenue history
From $2.0B to $3.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $3.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $62 goes to costs and operations; $38 is left as net profit (38% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Assets indexed to MSCI keep growing with global passive flows; every new dollar in ETFs based on its indexes pays perpetual rent.
Expansion of the ESG and Climate segment, growing double digits on a still-small base.
Subscription model with ~95% retention that allows frictionless annual price increases.
$6.2B in debt against $0.5B in cash —leveraged for a business already trading at 26x FCF.
Fee pressure in the ETF industry could pass through to index licensing fees.
Dependence on the passive investing boom; a structural rotation back to active management would hit the heart of the business.
Charlie's note
“A toll on the whole world's money. The business is magnificent; the price rarely lets you in undervalued. Be patient with valuation, not with quality.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for MSCI Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $438.96 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.