MSTR
Strategy Inc. (Bitcoin Treasury)
Cyclical Exchange
Price today
$100.77
what the market pays
Worth
$89.69
calculated cycle value
Price is 12% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Fair price?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $89.69 per share. Today's price of $100.77 is just 11% off that value — not cheap, not expensive, that's a fair price.
This is a quality business. The price reflects that quality.
There's no extra safety margin. Not the best time to buy new.
To enter with a margin, the price should drop to $71.75–$85.21.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$71.75
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$85.21
-5% off Value
⚪ Today
$100.77
-11% Valor
Fair price
Good business at a fair price. If you already own it, holding makes sense. For a new position, wait for a better price.
“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
A leveraged Bitcoin box with software glued on for decoration.
Business intelligence software company turned Bitcoin treasury vehicle. Today holds 766,970 BTC at an average cost of $75,644, financed with stock issuance (ATM) and preferred debt ($12.7B in STRK/STRF/STRD). The operating software business is residual; the stock trades as a leveraged BTC proxy.
No real moat. The edge is capital access: Saylor turned MSTR into the largest corporate BTC buyer, with scale that lets it issue debt and equity on terms a small competitor can't get. Replicable in theory, hard in practice due to the narrative premium that has already evaporated (today ~2% vs historical 50-200%).
Revenue history
From $0.5B to $0.5B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Catalysts and risks
BTC at $150K would push IV near $330 per the model.
Potential S&P 500 inclusion would force significant passive buying.
Preferred buyback if the premium over NAV stays low.
BTC sustained below $30K would trigger an insolvency scenario with the preferred debt.
Ongoing ATM dilution: each issuance at a low premium destroys per-share value.
Premium over NAV collapsed to 2%: the 'buy BTC via MSTR' thesis lost its reason for being.
Charlie's note
“Buying leveraged Bitcoin dressed up as a listed company strikes me as an elegant way to complicate something simple. If you want BTC, buy BTC.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Strategy Inc. (Bitcoin Treasury)?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $85.21 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.