MSTR
Strategy Inc. (Bitcoin Treasury)
Cyclical Exchange
★ Quality 2/100Price today
$142.80
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What this business is made of
The business
A leveraged Bitcoin box with software glued on for decoration.
Business intelligence software company turned Bitcoin treasury vehicle. Today holds 766,970 BTC at an average cost of $75,644, financed with stock issuance (ATM) and preferred debt ($12.7B in STRK/STRF/STRD). The operating software business is residual; the stock trades as a leveraged BTC proxy.
No real moat. The edge is capital access: Saylor turned MSTR into the largest corporate BTC buyer, with scale that lets it issue debt and equity on terms a small competitor can't get. Replicable in theory, hard in practice due to the narrative premium that has already evaporated (today ~2% vs historical 50-200%).
Revenue history
From $0.5B to $0.5B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Catalysts and risks
BTC at $150K would push IV near $330 per the model.
Potential S&P 500 inclusion would force significant passive buying.
Preferred buyback if the premium over NAV stays low.
BTC sustained below $30K would trigger an insolvency scenario with the preferred debt.
Ongoing ATM dilution: each issuance at a low premium destroys per-share value.
Premium over NAV collapsed to 2%: the 'buy BTC via MSTR' thesis lost its reason for being.
Charlie's note
“Buying leveraged Bitcoin dressed up as a listed company strikes me as an elegant way to complicate something simple. If you want BTC, buy BTC.”
Analysis · May 2026
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