PANW
Palo Alto Networks
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 63/100Price today
$336.24
what the market pays
Worth
$128.51
calculated cycle value
Price is 162% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$117.40
per share
How it's calculated
IV re-based after 2:1 split (Dec-2024). NGS ARR $4.5B+, FCF ~$3.5B (36% margin), gross margin 73%. Security reinforced by AI (no existential AI risk). The market pays a cash flow multiple well above the calculated value.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 66.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 20.3x.
64% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (24x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $4.89/share × 24.0x multiplier plus $11.11 in net cash = $128.51 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $336.24 is 62% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 162% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $122.08.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$102.81
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$122.08
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$336.24
-62% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Rent the company's immune system; nobody cancels the antivirus that already works.
Palo Alto sells cybersecurity by subscription: firewalls that filter traffic and, increasingly, cloud platforms and AI-driven detection. It charges recurring multi-year contracts; its next-generation ARR (committed annual revenue) tops $4.5B and grows at a double-digit rate.
The value lies in switching costs: once security is woven throughout your network, ripping it out is expensive and risky. Its platform strategy pushes the customer to buy everything under one roof. It's not an impenetrable moat —the sector is a dogfight— but customer inertia carries weight.
Revenue history
From $5.5B to $10.5B in 4 years — nearly 1.9x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $9.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $88 goes to costs and operations; $12 is left as net profit (12% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Next-generation ARR above $4.5B, still growing at a double-digit rate.
Consolidation of customers onto a single platform, raising spend per account.
Security reinforced with AI: more digital attack surface, more structural demand.
The market pays a multiple well above what its cash flow justifies.
Fierce competition: CrowdStrike, Fortinet, Zscaler and Microsoft push prices down.
Its growth depends on renewals; a corporate slowdown shows up fast.
Charlie's note
“First-class business: zero debt, 73% gross margin, cash flow growing at 15%. The catch is what the market demands: a multiple well above what the cash flow can support. Buying something excellent too expensive is still a bad deal.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Palo Alto Networks?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $122.08 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.