TCOM
Trip.com Group
China
★ Quality 30/100Price today
$41.03
Current discount
+177.2%
charlieapp.co
We are reviewing the data for this asset. For now we are not showing the calculated value or the signal — both come back as soon as the review is done.
What this business is made of
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
China · vs 6 peers
You pay 5.2x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 10.1x.
204% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (15.8x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why does Charlie give it 15.8x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 10.1x. This one rises from there:
81% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.
Grows 36% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 15.8x, more than the 10.1x average.
The business
Collects a toll every time a Chinese person books a hotel.
Trip.com is China's dominant online travel agency: it runs Ctrip, Qunar, the international Trip.com brand, and the Skyscanner search engine. It makes money on commissions from hotel, flight, and travel-package bookings. It owns no planes and no beds; it sells the act of booking.
Scale and data: decades of bookings give it inventory, pricing, and hotel relationships that a new rival would take years to match. The network effect helps—more travelers attract more supply—but it competes with deep-pocketed giants, so the moat is real without being impenetrable.
Revenue history
From $3.0B to $10.4B in 4 years — nearly 3.5x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $8.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $47 goes to costs and operations; $53 is left as net profit (53% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Recovery of Chinese outbound tourism, which still hasn't returned to pre-2019 levels.
Expansion of the Trip.com brand outside China, especially in Southeast Asia.
AI-powered booking tools that raise the average ticket.
VIE structure (variable interest entity): the foreign shareholder doesn't own the Chinese company, it owns a contract. If Beijing changes the rules, that evaporates.
Risk of delisting from the U.S. exchange due to geopolitical tension between Washington and Beijing.
Weak Chinese consumer spending: if the traveler's wallet tightens, travel is the first thing to get cut.
Charlie's note
“Paying 20x cash flow for a business growing 30% with 81% margins is arithmetic that offends no one. The discount for Chinese sovereign risk is the price of admission; you decide whether you want a seat at that table.”
Analysis · June 2026
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.