TCOM
Trip.com Group
China
★ Quality 30/100Price today
$43.04
what the market pays
Worth
$49.70
calculated cycle value
Price is 13% below its value
charlieapp.co
How many times the cash flow
China · vs 6 peers
You pay 13.2x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 9.5x.
18% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (15.6x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Discounted?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $49.70 per share. Today's price of $43.04 is 16% below value — a moderate discount, a good spot to enter gradually.
The price is 13% off the calculated value. Close, but without the ideal discount.
It's fine to buy in pieces. Monthly DCA works well here.
For a bigger safety margin, wait for $39.76 or less.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$39.76
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$47.22
-5% off Value
🟡 Today
$43.04
+16% Valor
Discounted
The price is close to value. There's no big discount, but it's reasonable to invest in pieces.
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Collects a toll every time a Chinese person books a hotel.
Trip.com is China's dominant online travel agency: it runs Ctrip, Qunar, the international Trip.com brand, and the Skyscanner search engine. It makes money on commissions from hotel, flight, and travel-package bookings. It owns no planes and no beds; it sells the act of booking.
Scale and data: decades of bookings give it inventory, pricing, and hotel relationships that a new rival would take years to match. The network effect helps—more travelers attract more supply—but it competes with deep-pocketed giants, so the moat is real without being impenetrable.
Revenue history
From $3.0B to $10.4B in 4 years — nearly 3.5x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $8.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $47 goes to costs and operations; $53 is left as net profit (53% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Recovery of Chinese outbound tourism, which still hasn't returned to pre-2019 levels.
Expansion of the Trip.com brand outside China, especially in Southeast Asia.
AI-powered booking tools that raise the average ticket.
VIE structure (variable interest entity): the foreign shareholder doesn't own the Chinese company, it owns a contract. If Beijing changes the rules, that evaporates.
Risk of delisting from the U.S. exchange due to geopolitical tension between Washington and Beijing.
Weak Chinese consumer spending: if the traveler's wallet tightens, travel is the first thing to get cut.
Charlie's note
“Paying 20x cash flow for a business growing 30% with 81% margins is arithmetic that offends no one. The discount for Chinese sovereign risk is the price of admission; you decide whether you want a seat at that table.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Trip.com Group?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.