TRV
The Travelers Companies
Insurance / BV
★ Quality 46/100Price today
$369.98
what the market pays
Worth
$175.74
calculated TBV value
Price is 111% above its value
charlieapp.co
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $175.74 per share. Today's price of $369.98 is 52% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 111% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $166.95.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$140.59
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$166.95
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$369.98
-53% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sells peace of mind, collects upfront, and holds other people's money while it waits.
Travelers insures property, autos, businesses, and liability for companies and families across the U.S. It makes money two ways: underwriting with discipline (so premiums collected beat claims and expenses) and investing the float—the cash from premiums collected but not yet paid out in claims. With a loss ratio (claims / premiums) near 62%, the craft is under control.
More than 160 years of claims data and a deeply rooted agent network give it pricing precision a newcomer can't buy. Underwriting discipline, not size alone, is the hard-to-copy edge.
Revenue history
From $34.8B to $48.8B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $48.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Revenue growing from $34.8B (2021) to $48.8B (2025): nearly 40% in five years.
19% ROE, a sign it prices risk well and doesn't give away premiums.
High interest rates fatten the yield on the invested float.
Natural catastrophes (hurricanes, hail, fires) can hit a quarter without warning.
The rate cycle: when everyone competes on price, margins erode.
Poorly estimated reserves today become losses tomorrow; the damage takes time to show.
Charlie's note
“Paying 1.22x book for an insurer returning 19% on capital isn't giving money away or throwing it out. Real quality at a sensible price; you rarely regret that.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for The Travelers Companies?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $166.95 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.