WB
China
★ Quality 29/100Price today
$6.72
Current discount
+174.4%
charlieapp.co
We are reviewing the data for this asset. For now we are not showing the calculated value or the signal — both come back as soon as the review is done.
What this business is made of
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
China · vs 6 peers
You pay 3.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 10.1x.
213% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (9.7x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why does Charlie give it 9.7x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 10.1x. This one drops from there:
Shrinks 5% a year. cash flow is contracting; the engine is losing steam.
76% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.
That's why it's worth 9.7x, less than the 10.1x average.
The business
A huge Chinese public square, with the building's owner watching everything.
Weibo is China's microblog-style social network, similar to what Twitter once was. It makes money selling advertising and marketing to brands (most of its revenue) and through paid services like memberships and live streaming.
Its edge is a network of hundreds of millions of users: people go where the people are. But that wall is eroding; Douyin's short video and conversation inside WeChat steal time and ad budget away from it. Not a moat you can sleep soundly on.
Revenue history
From $2.3B to $1.8B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $1.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $74 goes to costs and operations; $26 is left as net profit (26% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Cash of 2.4 billion against debt of 2.1 billion: room for dividends or share buybacks.
Recovery in ad spending if China's economy reignites consumption.
76% gross margin that sustains cash flow even with flat revenue.
VIE structure: you don't own the Chinese company, you own a contract in the Cayman Islands. Beijing can change the rules.
Douyin and Xiaohongshu drain young users and ad dollars year after year.
Revenue falling nearly 6% a year: a business shrinking slowly.
Charlie's note
“At 12x on a cash flow that contracts 6% a year, the price asks little and promises less. The 76% margin is real, but paying for growth that never arrives is paying for an illusion.”
Analysis · June 2026
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.