WB
China
★ Quality 29/100Price today
$7.92
what the market pays
Worth
$18.44
calculated cycle value
Price is 57% below its value
charlieapp.co
Unusually large discount. A gap this wide usually means the market is pricing in a risk (AI disruption, for example) that the model does not penalise. A contrarian opportunity: high upside, but high risk — not an obvious one.
How many times the cash flow
China · vs 6 peers
You pay 3.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 11.7x.
155% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (9.7x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $18.44 per share. Today's price of $7.92 is 133% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 57% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $14.75.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$14.75
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$17.52
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$7.92
+133% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
A huge Chinese public square, with the building's owner watching everything.
Weibo is China's microblog-style social network, similar to what Twitter once was. It makes money selling advertising and marketing to brands (most of its revenue) and through paid services like memberships and live streaming.
Its edge is a network of hundreds of millions of users: people go where the people are. But that wall is eroding; Douyin's short video and conversation inside WeChat steal time and ad budget away from it. Not a moat you can sleep soundly on.
Revenue history
From $2.3B to $1.8B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $1.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $74 goes to costs and operations; $26 is left as net profit (26% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Cash of 2.4 billion against debt of 2.1 billion: room for dividends or share buybacks.
Recovery in ad spending if China's economy reignites consumption.
76% gross margin that sustains cash flow even with flat revenue.
VIE structure: you don't own the Chinese company, you own a contract in the Cayman Islands. Beijing can change the rules.
Douyin and Xiaohongshu drain young users and ad dollars year after year.
Revenue falling nearly 6% a year: a business shrinking slowly.
Charlie's note
“At 12x on a cash flow that contracts 6% a year, the price asks little and promises less. The 76% margin is real, but paying for growth that never arrives is paying for an illusion.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Weibo?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.