AAPL
Apple Inc.
Platform / Network
★ Quality 72/100Price today
$325.84
what the market pays
Worth
$124.70
calculated cycle value
Price is 161% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
iPhone · Mac · App Store · Services
$128.35
per share
How it's calculated
IV model $146 = FCF+R&D floor. Market pays +70%: ecosystem 1.5B+ devices, Services 75% margin growing 14%+, buybacks $91B/year (-3% shares). PEG 3.1. Risk: tariffs ~$5-8B/year, China regulatory. Siri 2.0 WWDC Jun-2026. Foldable iPhone delayed 2027 (hinge/display failure Apr-2026). BARGAIN <$117, ATTRACTIVE <$139.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 49.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
61% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (19.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $6.65/share × 19.3x multiplier minus $3.65 in negative net cash = $124.70 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $325.84 is 62% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 161% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $118.47.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$99.76
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$118.47
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$325.84
-62% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
They sell you the phone once and rent you the ecosystem forever.
Apple designs the iPhone, Mac, iPad and wearables, but the real engine is hooking 1.5 billion active devices. On top of that base it charges for Services —App Store, iCloud, subscriptions— which already grow 14% a year with margins near 75%.
The cost of leaving is the moat: iMessage, photos, purchased apps and three accessories that only talk to other Apples. It's not a legal monopoly, it's accumulated friction. Switching brands feels like moving to another country.
Revenue history
From $365.8B to $416.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $416.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $73 goes to costs and operations; $27 is left as net profit (27% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Revamped Siri at WWDC in June 2026.
Buybacks of ~$91B a year that cut shares by about 3% annually.
Services growing 14%+ with a 75% margin.
Tariffs that could cost $5-8B a year.
Regulatory pressure in China, a key production and sales market.
Foldable iPhone pushed to 2027 due to hinge and screen failures.
Charlie's note
“Extraordinary business, price with little modesty: paying over 19x for something that grows at a mid-single digit and is no longer a monopoly leaves little room for surprises. I'd rather buy castles when the moat is on sale, not when they charge admission for the view.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Apple Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $118.47 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.