ABBV
AbbVie
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 51/100Price today
$256.46
what the market pays
Worth
$175.77
calculated cycle value
Price is 46% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$206.06
per share
How it's calculated
Humira LOE absorbed. Skyrizi+Rinvoq $20B+ combined. pharmaRD + acquisitionDebt. $55B debt penalizes. 52 yrs div. HOLD.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 27.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
28% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (20x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $10.30/share × 20.0x multiplier minus $30.29 in negative net cash = $175.77 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $256.46 is 31% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 46% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $166.98.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$140.62
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$166.98
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$256.46
-32% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Humira stopped being a gold mine; already digging two richer veins.
AbbVie develops and sells prescription drugs, mostly in immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq), oncology, and aesthetics (Botox). It charges for each prescribed treatment, protected by patents. In 2025 it billed 61 billion with 17.8 billion in free cash flow.
Its drugs are shielded by patents and years of clinical trials that no one replicates quickly; switching immunology treatments is slow and risky for the patient. But patents expire, so the moat has to be re-dug every decade.
Revenue history
From $56.2B to $61.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $61.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $93 goes to costs and operations; $7 is left as net profit (7% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Skyrizi and Rinvoq already add up to more than 20 billion combined and are aiming to surpass Humira's historic peak by 2027.
Recovery of the aesthetics business (Botox, Juvederm) as discretionary spending normalizes.
Dividend with 52 consecutive years of increases — dividend king track record.
Debt of 58.9 billion against 5.2 in cash, a legacy of the Allergan purchase.
Biosimilars keep eroding Humira, which still brings in revenue.
Skyrizi and Rinvoq will face their own patent expirations next decade, plus Medicare pricing pressure (state price negotiation in the US).
Charlie's note
“Twenty times cash flow for a company that replaced its biggest patent without bleeding out is an honest deal. Debt of nearly ten times cash is uncomfortable, but 52 years of raising the dividend buys a lot of patience.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for AbbVie?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $166.98 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.