ABEV
Ambev S.A.
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 69/100Price today
$3.02
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What this business is made of
The business
Owner of the tap: every cold beer in Brazil rides on their truck.
Ambev is the largest brewer in Latin America, controlled by AB InBev. It sells beer (Skol, Brahma, Antarctica, local Corona), soft drinks, and bottles Pepsi across the region. It charges by volume: $15.1B in sales, 51% gross margin, with Brazil contributing the majority.
Capillary distribution to over a million points of sale and brands a Brazilian asks for by name. Replicating that cold-chain logistics and the recognition of Skol or Brahma would take decades. The moat is real but not impregnable: premiumization and global brands erode the cheap segments.
Revenue history
From $15.4B to $15.8B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $15.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
2026 World Cup in Q2: seasonal beer consumption with heavy AB InBev marketing.
Premiumization: Corona and Spaten grow double digit, lifting margin per liter.
Net cash +$0.184/ADR and payout >70%: dividend yield near 8% sustainable.
BRL/USD: reais convert into fewer dollars; the ADR suffers even if the business grows.
Soft volume in Brazil: pressured consumer, no infinite pricing power.
No airtight monopoly: regulation, alcohol taxes, and premium competition bite.
Charlie's note
“You buy a boring, dominant business at 12.6x FCF, with net cash and an 8% dividend. The real punishes you in the short term; the people drinking beer in São Paulo don't worry about the exchange rate.”
Analysis · June 2026
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