ABEV
Ambev S.A.
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 70/100Price today
$3.16
what the market pays
Worth
$4.09
calculated cycle value
Price is 23% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$3.91
per share
How it's calculated
UNDERVALUED: P/FCF 12.6x vs IV 18.9x. Positive net cash +$0.184/ADR. LATAM monopoly (~60% Brazil, >65-70% several markets). Payout 70%+, div yield ~8%. Tailwinds 2026: World Cup Q2, premiumization. Risk: BRL/USD headwind, volume softness Brazil. EV/EBITDA market 7.9x vs IV 12.1x.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 13.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
31% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (18x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $0.22/share × 18.0x multiplier plus $0.18 in net cash = $4.09 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $3.16 is 30% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 23% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $3.27.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$3.27
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$3.89
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$3.16
+30% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Owner of the tap: every cold beer in Brazil rides on their truck.
Ambev is the largest brewer in Latin America, controlled by AB InBev. It sells beer (Skol, Brahma, Antarctica, local Corona), soft drinks, and bottles Pepsi across the region. It charges by volume: $15.1B in sales, 51% gross margin, with Brazil contributing the majority.
Capillary distribution to over a million points of sale and brands a Brazilian asks for by name. Replicating that cold-chain logistics and the recognition of Skol or Brahma would take decades. The moat is real but not impregnable: premiumization and global brands erode the cheap segments.
Revenue history
From $15.4B to $15.8B in 4 years. Sales aren't taking off — the engine is stuck.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $15.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
2026 World Cup in Q2: seasonal beer consumption with heavy AB InBev marketing.
Premiumization: Corona and Spaten grow double digit, lifting margin per liter.
Net cash +$0.184/ADR and payout >70%: dividend yield near 8% sustainable.
BRL/USD: reais convert into fewer dollars; the ADR suffers even if the business grows.
Soft volume in Brazil: pressured consumer, no infinite pricing power.
No airtight monopoly: regulation, alcohol taxes, and premium competition bite.
Charlie's note
“You buy a boring, dominant business at 12.6x FCF, with net cash and an 8% dividend. The real punishes you in the short term; the people drinking beer in São Paulo don't worry about the exchange rate.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Ambev S.A.?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.