ABNB
Airbnb
Platform / Network
★ Quality 82/100Price today
$141.36
what the market pays
Worth
$189.08
calculated cycle value
Price is 25% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$178.55
per share
How it's calculated
Airbnb — high assistant route (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 17.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 28.5x.
36% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (24x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $7.43/share × 24.0x multiplier plus $10.53 in net cash = $189.08 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $141.36 is 34% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 25% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $151.26.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$151.26
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$179.63
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$141.36
+34% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The world's largest hotel that doesn't own a single bed.
Airbnb is the marketplace connecting hosts with travelers in over 220 countries. It charges a commission on every booking — host and guest fees — without owning a single property. In 2025 it moved $12.2B in revenue with an 83% gross margin.
The two-sided network effect: more hosts attract more guests and vice versa. Seven million active listings are nearly impossible to replicate overnight. The brand became a verb — people say 'airbnb it', not 'rent a house'.
Revenue history
From $6.0B to $12.2B in 4 years — nearly 2.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $12.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $79 goes to costs and operations; $21 is left as net profit (21% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Expansion into new services and experiences categories launched in 2025, widening the take rate per user.
Growth in international markets like Latin America and Asia, still underpenetrated versus North America.
$6.6B in cash with no debt for aggressive buybacks or acquisitions; estimated 20% CAGR.
Municipal regulation: cities like New York and Barcelona already restrict short-term rentals, cutting inventory.
No real strong moat — Booking and Vrbo compete for the same hosts with little switching friction.
Travel spending is cyclical; a recession hits discretionary bookings first.
Charlie's note
“A marketplace with no bricks, 83% gross margin and a brand turned into a verb: a solid moat. At 24x with the business growing 20%, you pay a sensible price for real quality — nothing's given away, but you're not getting gouged either.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Airbnb?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.