ADP
Automatic Data Processing
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 82/100Price today
$245.11
what the market pays
Worth
$263.34
calculated cycle value
Price is 7% below its value
charlieapp.co
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$264.87
per share
How it's calculated
Automatic Data Processing — high via assistant (2026-06-01). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 21.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
8% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (22.7x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Discounted?
Its free cash flow is $11.67/share × 22.7x multiplier minus $1.53 in negative net cash = $263.34 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $245.11 is 7% below value — a moderate discount, a good spot to enter gradually.
The price is 7% off the calculated value. Close, but without the ideal discount.
It's fine to buy in pieces. Monthly DCA works well here.
For a bigger safety margin, wait for $210.67 or less.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$210.67
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$250.17
-5% off Value
🟡 Today
$245.11
+7% Valor
Discounted
The price is close to value. There's no big discount, but it's reasonable to invest in pieces.
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
ADP is the payroll plumbing: installing it costs, ripping it out costs even more.
ADP processes payroll and manages human resources for more than 1 million clients, from small businesses to multinationals. It charges per employee processed and for HR services, with recurring revenue of $20.6B in FY2025. It also earns interest on client funds it holds before paying taxes and salaries.
The switching cost is brutal: migrating payroll for thousands of employees is risky and nobody does it on a whim. Four decades of tax compliance in every jurisdiction create a regulatory moat that's hard to replicate. Even so, the model flags this isn't a monopoly: Paychex, Workday and others fight for the turf.
Revenue history
From $15.0B to $20.6B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $20.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $80 goes to costs and operations; $20 is left as net profit (20% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Float on client funds (~$2.5B in potential annual interest) benefits from sustained high rates.
Dividend raised 50 consecutive years; FCF of $4.8B backs continued increases.
Migration to higher-margin HR modules lifts revenue per client heading into FY2026.
Rate cuts directly compress float income, with no effort from the business.
Employment sensitivity: a recession reduces employees processed and, with it, revenue per unit.
No monopoly moat; competition in HR software pressures prices over the long term.
Charlie's note
“A boring toll on every North American paycheck — the kind of boring that makes you rich. At 22.7x normalized FCF you're paying for reliability, not for a discount; the waiting list to buy it cheap is long.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Automatic Data Processing?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.