ADSK
Autodesk
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 96/100Price today
$207.83
what the market pays
Worth
$349.99
calculated cycle value
Price is 41% below its value
charlieapp.co
Unusually large discount. A gap this wide usually means the market is pricing in a risk (AI disruption, for example) that the model does not penalise. A contrarian opportunity: high upside, but high risk — not an obvious one.
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$351.16
per share
How it's calculated
Autodesk — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 18.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 21.9x.
67% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (31.3x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $11.20/share × 31.3x multiplier minus $1.17 in negative net cash = $349.99 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $207.83 is 68% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 41% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $279.99.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$279.99
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$332.49
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$207.83
+68% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Autodesk is every architect's native language: learned once, spoken forever.
Autodesk sells design and engineering software: AutoCAD, Revit, Fusion, Maya. Architects, builders, manufacturers, and film studios pay an annual or multi-year subscription. Revenue of $7.2B, almost all recurring.
The file format is the moat. A building designed in Revit lives inside the Autodesk ecosystem for decades, and every professional trained on AutoCAD is a captive customer for life. Switching software means retraining entire teams and risking decades of files. That's why the gross margin is 91%.
Revenue history
From $4.4B to $7.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $7.2B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $84 goes to costs and operations; $16 is left as net profit (16% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Transition to a direct billing model with distributors, expanding pricing control since FY2025.
Construction cloud (BIM 360, Autodesk Construction Cloud) growing double digits in a still under-penetrated market.
FCF of $2.4B with high conversion — aggressive buybacks reducing shares every quarter.
Valuation demands perfection: at 31x FCF, any slowdown from the 13% CAGR hurts.
Hidden cyclicality — construction and manufacturing are sensitive to rates and recession, despite the subscription model.
Niche competition: cheaper design clouds and generative tools that could erode pricing over the long term.
Charlie's note
“A business that charges a toll every year for files the customer can't move. That's quality. At this price you pay for the quality — just make sure the growth shows up.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Autodesk?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.