AFL
Aflac
Insurance / BV
★ Quality 31/100Price today
$124.14
what the market pays
Worth
$66.49
calculated TBV value
Price is 87% above its value
charlieapp.co
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $66.49 per share. Today's price of $124.14 is 46% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 87% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $63.17.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$53.19
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$63.17
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$124.14
-46% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sells peace of mind to Japanese employees and collects before it pays.
Aflac sells supplemental health and life insurance —cancer, accident, disability— mostly in Japan and the U.S. It makes money two ways: underwriting with discipline (with a loss ratio —claims over premiums— near 54%, it pays out barely half of what it collects) and investing the float —the cash from premiums not yet used to pay claims— in bonds.
Decades of selling in the Japanese workplace give it distribution and a brand a rival can't buy with a check. The duck's recognition and corporate-channel loyalty are hard to replicate.
Revenue history
From $21.6B to $17.2B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $17.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $79 goes to costs and operations; $21 is left as net profit (21% margin).
Catalysts and risks
54% loss ratio: very disciplined underwriting that leaves ample margin for the float.
Sustained 12% ROE, solid for a supplemental-products insurer.
Steady buybacks that raise book value per share over time.
Revenue falling from $21.6B (2021) to $17.2B (2025): the business is shrinking in dollars.
Yen exposure: much of the premiums are collected in a currency weak against the dollar.
Interest rates and credit: the float's yield depends on its bond portfolio.
Charlie's note
“Real quality with a 12% ROE, but paying 1.2x book for a shrinking business is no gift. Reasonable, no more.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Aflac?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $63.17 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.