AKAM

AKAM

Akamai Technologies

Platform / Network

★ Quality 33/100
Overvalued

Price today

$125.75

what the market pays

Worth

$78.94

calculated cycle value

Worth $78.94price today $125.75

Price is 59% above its value

charlieapp.co

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$55.6$79.1$103$126$150'21'22'23'24'25'26AKAMVI $78.9 · MdS -37%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

Where does the value come from?

🌐

Digital platform

$72.61

per share

How it's calculated

💰

Free cash flow per share

normalized free cash flow

$6.88
×
📐

Multiplier

years of discounted cash flows

10.6x
=
🏢

Business value

without cash

$72.61

Akamai Technologies — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.

🏦

Net cash in the bank

cash minus financial debt, per share

+$6.33

Total calculated value

business + cash

$78.94

How many times the cash flow

Platform / Network · vs 27 peers

You pay today
17.4x
Sector median
28.5x
Charlie: worth
10.6x

You pay 17.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 28.5x.

39% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10.6x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.

Why Overvalued?

Its free cash flow is $6.88/share × 10.6x multiplier plus $6.33 in net cash = $78.94 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $125.75 is 37% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.

⚠️

The price is 59% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.

⚠️

Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.

💡

The next reasonable entry zone starts at $74.99.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$63.15

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$74.99

-5% off Value

🔴 Today

$125.75

-37% Valor

🔴

Overvalued

The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

Akamai is the internet's highway system, with its toll eroding.

Akamai moves internet traffic so it loads fast and secure. It started as a CDN —caching content close to the user— and today it charges increasingly for cybersecurity (Guardicore, App & API Protection) and edge computing. Of $4.2B in revenue, security and compute already weigh more than the original delivery business.

A network of hundreds of thousands of servers across thousands of locations, built over 25 years. Replicating it costs capital and time that few want to spend. The problem: the hyperscalers —Amazon, Cloudflare— offer the same thing ever cheaper. The moat exists, but the water is dropping.

Revenue history

$3.5B
2021
$3.6B
2022
$3.8B
2023
$4.0B
2024
$4.2B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +5%

From $3.5B to $4.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $4.2B · FY2025

Cost of sales$1.7B · 41%
Operations$1.9B · 46%
Taxes and other$115M · 3%
Net profit$452M · 11%

Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Security and compute grow double-digit; if they cross 70% of revenue by 2026, the multiple re-rates.

Compute (edge cloud) targets $1B+ run-rate, competing directly against AWS on low latency.

Clean balance sheet: $0.9B in cash, zero debt, $1.0B of FCF — aggressive buybacks reduce shares every year.

⚠️

The legacy CDN business is getting commoditized; Cloudflare pressures prices without mercy.

⚠️

5% growth doesn't justify a high-growth platform valuation.

⚠️

No real monopoly: large clients can bring delivery in-house or migrate to hyperscalers.

Charlie's note

Paying 10.56x for a business with 59% gross margin isn't expensive, but that 5% growth gives away that the hyperscalers are already stepping on its hose; the modest multiple is the fair price of an eroding moat, not a blessing.

Analysis · June 2026

So when would be a good price for Akamai Technologies?

By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $74.99 — so you do not have to keep checking.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.