AKAM
Akamai Technologies
Platform / Network
★ Quality 33/100Price today
$125.75
what the market pays
Worth
$78.94
calculated cycle value
Price is 59% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$72.61
per share
How it's calculated
Akamai Technologies — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 17.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 28.5x.
39% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10.6x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $6.88/share × 10.6x multiplier plus $6.33 in net cash = $78.94 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $125.75 is 37% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 59% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $74.99.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$63.15
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$74.99
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$125.75
-37% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Akamai is the internet's highway system, with its toll eroding.
Akamai moves internet traffic so it loads fast and secure. It started as a CDN —caching content close to the user— and today it charges increasingly for cybersecurity (Guardicore, App & API Protection) and edge computing. Of $4.2B in revenue, security and compute already weigh more than the original delivery business.
A network of hundreds of thousands of servers across thousands of locations, built over 25 years. Replicating it costs capital and time that few want to spend. The problem: the hyperscalers —Amazon, Cloudflare— offer the same thing ever cheaper. The moat exists, but the water is dropping.
Revenue history
From $3.5B to $4.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $4.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Security and compute grow double-digit; if they cross 70% of revenue by 2026, the multiple re-rates.
Compute (edge cloud) targets $1B+ run-rate, competing directly against AWS on low latency.
Clean balance sheet: $0.9B in cash, zero debt, $1.0B of FCF — aggressive buybacks reduce shares every year.
The legacy CDN business is getting commoditized; Cloudflare pressures prices without mercy.
5% growth doesn't justify a high-growth platform valuation.
No real monopoly: large clients can bring delivery in-house or migrate to hyperscalers.
Charlie's note
“Paying 10.56x for a business with 59% gross margin isn't expensive, but that 5% growth gives away that the hyperscalers are already stepping on its hose; the modest multiple is the fair price of an eroding moat, not a blessing.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Akamai Technologies?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $74.99 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.