ALL
Allstate
Insurance / BV
★ Quality 68/100Price today
$251.45
what the market pays
Worth
$137.75
calculated TBV value
Price is 83% above its value
charlieapp.co
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $137.75 per share. Today's price of $251.45 is 45% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 83% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $130.86.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$110.20
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$130.86
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$251.45
-45% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sells peace of mind, gets paid today, and covers the scare years later.
Allstate insures cars and homes in the United States: it collects premiums upfront and promises to pay claims that come later. It makes money two ways: underwriting with discipline (premiums beating claims plus expenses) and investing the float —the cash from premiums not yet paid out— while it waits. With a loss ratio (claims over premiums) near 67%, there's room to cover expenses and still turn a profit.
Decades of claims data and a well-known brand let it price risk better than a newcomer. Replicating that information base and the agent network costs time and scars, not just money.
Revenue history
From $50.6B to $67.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $67.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $85 goes to costs and operations; $15 is left as net profit (15% margin).
Catalysts and risks
34% ROE: every dollar on the books works hard, well above the typical cost of capital.
Revenue grew from $50.6B (2021) to $67.7B (2025), a sign that rate hikes are already biting.
Higher interest rates fatten the invested float's yield with no extra effort.
Natural catastrophes (hurricanes, hail, fires) can wipe out a year of underwriting in a single quarter.
The rate cycle: if regulators slow hikes, claims rise faster than premiums.
Mispriced reserves: if future claims cost more than expected, today's profit was an illusion.
Charlie's note
“Paying 1.2x book value for a machine that returns 34% on that capital isn't crazy; it's paying a modest multiple for a not-so-modest return. The hard part is that the 34% lasts.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Allstate?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $130.86 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.