AMD
AMD
Semiconductors
★ Quality 28/100Price today
$553.26
what the market pays
Worth
$75.04
calculated cycle value
Price is 637% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 11 peers
You pay 144.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 58.2x.
86% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (19.6x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $75.04 per share. Today's price of $553.26 is 86% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 637% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $71.29.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$60.03
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$71.29
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$553.26
-86% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
AMD is the eternal runner-up that still hasn't cracked Nvidia's CUDA wall.
AMD designs CPUs (Ryzen, EPYC) and GPUs (Radeon, Instinct) without its own factories — TSMC does the manufacturing. It charges per chip sold to hyperscalers, OEMs and consumers. Data Center brought in $16.6B (+32%) and now weighs more than the rest combined.
A real duopoly in x86 with Intel and in AI GPUs with Nvidia. The chiplet architecture gave it a cost and performance edge in servers for years. The problem: in AI the moat belongs to CUDA, not AMD — ROCm is still behind.
Revenue history
From $9.8B to $25.8B in 4 years — nearly 2.6x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $34.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).
Catalysts and risks
MI350 (3nm, 288GB HBM3E) already in volume during 2025.
MI450 launches H2 2026 with NVL72-style rack-scale architecture.
2024 FCF hit $5.5B (+130% YoY), real cash traction.
CUDA keeps developers locked to Nvidia — ROCm still doesn't convince.
Xilinx goodwill ($35B) inflates the balance sheet and crushes GAAP ROCE.
Semis is cyclical: a capex correction at hyperscalers hits the #2 players first.
Charlie's note
“Paying 19.6x for a business growing at 28% isn't excessive, but that 50% gross margin gives away a challenger, not the owner of the moat: in AI it's CUDA that rules, not ROCm. You're paying for the promise of closing that gap, so it's wise to demand a discount and have the patience to wait for it.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for AMD?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $71.29 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.