AME

AME

Ametek

Hybrid Industrial

★ Quality 38/100
Overvalued

Price today

$238.75

what the market pays

Worth

$81.59

calculated cycle value

Worth $81.59price today $238.75

Price is 193% above its value

charlieapp.co

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$57.4$103$149$194$240'21'22'23'24'25'26AMEVI $81.6 · MdS -66%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

Where does the value come from?

🏭

Manufacturing + technology

$89.48

per share

How it's calculated

💰

Free cash flow per share

normalized free cash flow

$7.23
×
📐

Multiplier

years of discounted cash flows

12.4x
=
🏢

Business value

without cash

$89.48

Ametek: niche electronic instrumentation that grows by buying small companies and raising their margins (an acquisition compounder). Revenue $7.4B, gross margin 36%, FCF $1.7B, growth ~7%. The model uses a conservative multiple on current cash flow; the market pays well above that for the acquisition machine.

🏦

Net cash in the bank

cash minus financial debt, per share

$7.89

Total calculated value

business + cash

$81.59

How many times the cash flow

Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers

You pay today
34.1x
Sector median
35x
Charlie: worth
12.4x

You pay 34.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35x.

64% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (12.4x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.

Why Overvalued?

Its free cash flow is $7.23/share × 12.4x multiplier minus $7.89 in negative net cash = $81.59 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $238.75 is 66% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.

⚠️

The price is 193% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.

⚠️

Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.

💡

The next reasonable entry zone starts at $77.51.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$65.27

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$77.51

-5% off Value

🔴 Today

$238.75

-66% Valor

🔴

Overvalued

The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

Buys small instrument makers, raises their margins, and repeats.

Ametek makes precision electronic instruments and electromechanical components for industrial niches: sensors, measurement equipment, specialized motors. It sells to manufacturers, labs, and aerospace, and charges for high-margin hardware that's hard to replace once installed.

Its edge isn't a single product, it's the machine: it buys small companies, cuts their costs, and raises their margins. That operating discipline, repeated over decades, is hard to copy because it takes culture, not capital. Even so, the model doesn't earn a wide moat: the moat lives in execution, not in monopoly.

Revenue history

$5.5B
2021
$6.2B
2022
$6.6B
2023
$6.9B
2024
$7.4B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +7%

From $5.5B to $7.4B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $7.4B · FY2025

Cost of sales$4.7B · 64%
Operations$757M · 10%
Taxes and other$430M · 6%
Net profit$1.5B · 20%

Of every $100 in sales, $80 goes to costs and operations; $20 is left as net profit (20% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Organic growth plus acquisitions sustains ~7% annual revenue.

36% gross margin with $1.7B of free cash flow to keep buying.

Healthy balance sheet: $0.5B in cash against $2.3B of debt, room for more deals.

⚠️

Without steady acquisitions, growth deflates fast.

⚠️

Overpaying for an acquired company destroys the machine's return.

⚠️

Industrial demand is cyclical; a recession slows instrument orders.

Charlie's note

Excellent business, watchmaker-level execution, growing at 7% with a 36% gross margin. The problem is the price: the market pays well above the 12x that current cash flow justifies. Quality is rarely given away.

Analysis · June 2026

So when would be a good price for Ametek?

By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $77.51 — so you do not have to keep checking.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.