AMX
América Móvil
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 14/100Price today
$26.08
what the market pays
Worth
$11.10
calculated cycle value
Price is 135% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$11.10
per share
How it's calculated
IV by owner-earnings per ADS (1 ADS = 20 common shares; normalized flow ~$2/ADS × 5.5x), not by an EBITDA anchor. Emerging-markets telco: ~330M subscribers, ~60% share in Mexico, #2 in Brazil. High net debt (management targets 1.3-1.5x EBITDA). Risk: Carlos Slim controls ~53% and exposure to the Mexican peso. The market pays above the value calculated on normalized flow.
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 12.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.
57% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (5.5x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.02/share × 5.5x multiplier = $11.10 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $26.08 is 57% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 135% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $10.54.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$8.88
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$10.54
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$26.08
-57% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The toll collector of Latin American telecom: everyone pays to pass through.
América Móvil is the largest mobile and internet operator in Latin America, with around 330 million subscribers. It charges monthly fees for data, voice, and broadband; a repeat-fee business that comes in month after month. It dominates Mexico (~60% of the market) and is #2 in Brazil.
Telecom networks cost billions in towers, spectrum, and fiber; no one replicates them overnight. In Mexico, its scale gives it a real cost advantage over rivals. But it's not a bulletproof monopoly: there's aggressive competition and regulators watching the dominant player.
Revenue history
From $49.9B to $52.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Catalysts and risks
Management's plan to bring net debt down to 1.3-1.5x EBITDA, freeing up flow for shareholders.
Migrating customers to higher-value data plans (4G to 5G) raises revenue per user.
Share buybacks and growing dividends if the Mexican peso stays firm.
Carlos Slim controls ~53%: decisions are made for him, not necessarily for the minority shareholder.
Nearly all revenue is in emerging-market currencies; a weak peso reduces the dollar value.
High debt in a capital-intensive business leaves little room when rates rise.
Charlie's note
“Decent business, not exceptional: it grows at 6% with 62% gross margins, but without an impenetrable moat. At 5.5x normalized flow, the market already asks more than the owner should pay for an indebted emerging-markets telco.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for América Móvil?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $10.54 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.