AMZN
Amazon.com
Triple Hybrid
★ Quality 38/100Price today
$246.07
what the market pays
Worth
$235.47
calculated cycle value
Price is 5% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Fair price?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $235.47 per share. Today's price of $246.07 is just 4% off that value — not cheap, not expensive, that's a fair price.
This is a quality business. The price reflects that quality.
There's no extra safety margin. Not the best time to buy new.
To enter with a margin, the price should drop to $188.38–$223.70.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$188.38
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$223.70
-5% off Value
⚪ Today
$246.07
-4% Valor
Fair price
Good business at a fair price. If you already own it, holding makes sense. For a new position, wait for a better price.
“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Amazon: the store that pays everyone else's internet rent with AWS.
Amazon sells everything online, hosts half the internet with AWS and monetizes traffic with advertising. Three businesses under one roof: retail (60% of revenue, thin margins), AWS (17% of revenue, 35%+ operating margin) and ads ($50B+ annualized growing 20%).
AWS has brutal switching costs: migrating petabytes and re-architecting apps is expensive and risky. Retail's logistics network —hundreds of warehouses and same-day delivery— no one replicates without burning decades and billions. Prime closes the loop with 200M+ hooked subscribers.
Revenue history
From $469.8B to $705.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $716.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).
Catalysts and risks
AI capex of $128B in 2025 and $200B guided for 2026: if it monetizes, normalized FCF flies past $120B.
AWS growing 19% YoY with a backlog of $200B+ under contract.
Advertising scaling toward $70B in 2026 with incremental margin near 80%.
Massive AI capex with no clear return: if compute demand doesn't show up, FCF stays trapped for years.
AWS loses share to Azure in enterprise AI workloads.
Antitrust regulation on the marketplace and retail margin compression from Walmart and Temu competition.
Charlie's note
“Three excellent businesses taped together with accounting duct tape. The trick is enduring today's capex without losing sight of the FCF to come — if Bezos taught us anything, it's that patience with Amazon pays.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Amazon.com?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $223.70 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.