APP
AppLovin
Platform / Network
★ Quality 80/100Price today
$413.76
what the market pays
Worth
$315.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 31% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$309.08
per share
How it's calculated
AI-native ad-tech. Axon engine moat. Rev +70%, FCF 60% margin. SEC investigation active. PEG 0.71. WAIT for SEC clarity.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 41.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
24% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (31.7x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $9.76/share × 29.0x multiplier plus $5.92 in net cash = $315.00 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $413.76 is 24% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 31% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $299.25.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$252.00
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$299.25
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$413.76
-24% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Axon is the AI auctioneer that charges for every ad served inside apps.
AppLovin runs Axon, an AI engine that connects advertisers with mobile apps via real-time bidding. It charges a commission on every impression served, with a 73% gross margin and a 60% FCF margin. The software segment already eclipses the legacy first-party gaming business.
Axon improves with every dollar spent: more data, better targeting, better ROAS (return on ad spend) for the advertiser. It's a data flywheel that's hard to replicate without equivalent scale. Even so, Meta and Google play the same game with more muscle.
Revenue history
From $1.5B to $4.7B in 4 years — nearly 3.1x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $5.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $39 goes to costs and operations; $61 is left as net profit (61% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Resolution of the SEC investigation into attribution practices.
Divestiture of the Apps (gaming) business announced for 2025, ~$900M.
Axon expansion into e-commerce and CTV, a TAM 10x larger than mobile gaming.
SEC investigation active over allegations of scraping Meta data.
Concentration: ~70% of revenue comes from mobile gaming advertisers.
Privacy changes from Apple (ATT) or Google can break attribution.
Charlie's note
“An extraordinary business priced like one. The problem isn't the price, it's the SEC looking at the books. I'll sit in the stands until the referee speaks.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for AppLovin?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $299.25 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.