ASML
ASML Holding
Semiconductors
★ Quality 85/100Price today
$1,715
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The only supplier in the world
ASML builds the machines that build the most advanced chips on the planet. Nobody else can make them — not Samsung, not TSMC, not Intel can do without them.
What this business is made of
Where does the value come from?
5-year cycle
Money made year by year
This business has cycles — good years and bad years. That's why we don't use just the last year.
We use the average of those 5 years as the base for the math — not the good year, not the bad year. That way the value reflects what the company makes steadily.
The business
Without their machines, not a single cutting-edge chip gets made.
ASML builds the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines that etch the finest circuits onto the most advanced chips. It sells each machine for hundreds of millions; the new High-NA ones run around $370M per unit. It also charges recurring service and maintenance on the installed base.
Absolute EUV monopoly: nobody else in the world builds these machines. Behind it lie decades of R&D, an irreplaceable supply chain (Zeiss optics, Cymer lasers), and brutal engineering complexity. The record backlog of €38.8B is proof customers have no alternative.
Revenue history
From $22.6B to $40.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $33.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $71 goes to costs and operations; $29 is left as net profit (29% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Record backlog of €38.8B in Q4 2025, double the estimate.
2026 guidance of €34-39B in revenue.
High-NA EUV at $370M per unit, adopted by Intel, Samsung, and TSMC.
The MATCH Act (April 2026) could restrict DUV sales to China, ~15% of revenue.
Semiconductors are cyclical by nature: demand swings up and down hard.
Extreme customer concentration in TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.
Charlie's note
“A monopoly with 53% gross margin deserves respect, and paying 33x doesn't insult it. But the chip cycle always sends the bill sooner or later; better to step in when the market's in a bad mood, not euphoric.”
Analysis · July 2026
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