ASML

ASML

ASML Holding

Semiconductors

★ Quality 85/100
Overvalued

Price today

$1,715

This company value is already calculated

We know what it is worth from its audited numbers, and whether it trades above or below that today. Create your free account to see it.

See what it is worth

charlieapp.co

🏆

The only supplier in the world

ASML builds the machines that build the most advanced chips on the planet. Nobody else can make them — not Samsung, not TSMC, not Intel can do without them.

What this business is made of

85qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

Where does the value come from?

5-year cycle

Money made year by year

This business has cycles — good years and bad years. That's why we don't use just the last year.

$16.3
2021
$15.1
2022
$22.0
2023
$19.9
2024
$19.9
2025
Cycle average: $18.64/sh

We use the average of those 5 years as the base for the math — not the good year, not the bad year. That way the value reflects what the company makes steadily.

The business

Without their machines, not a single cutting-edge chip gets made.

ASML builds the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines that etch the finest circuits onto the most advanced chips. It sells each machine for hundreds of millions; the new High-NA ones run around $370M per unit. It also charges recurring service and maintenance on the installed base.

Absolute EUV monopoly: nobody else in the world builds these machines. Behind it lie decades of R&D, an irreplaceable supply chain (Zeiss optics, Cymer lasers), and brutal engineering complexity. The record backlog of €38.8B is proof customers have no alternative.

Revenue history

$22.6B
2022
$29.8B
2023
$30.4B
2024
$32.7B
2025
$40.0B
2026
CAGR 5 años: +15%

From $22.6B to $40.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $33.8B · FY2025

Cost of sales$16.0B · 47%
Operations$6.2B · 18%
Taxes and other$1.8B · 5%
Net profit$9.9B · 29%

Of every $100 in sales, $71 goes to costs and operations; $29 is left as net profit (29% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Record backlog of €38.8B in Q4 2025, double the estimate.

2026 guidance of €34-39B in revenue.

High-NA EUV at $370M per unit, adopted by Intel, Samsung, and TSMC.

⚠️

The MATCH Act (April 2026) could restrict DUV sales to China, ~15% of revenue.

⚠️

Semiconductors are cyclical by nature: demand swings up and down hard.

⚠️

Extreme customer concentration in TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

Charlie's note

A monopoly with 53% gross margin deserves respect, and paying 33x doesn't insult it. But the chip cycle always sends the bill sooner or later; better to step in when the market's in a bad mood, not euphoric.

Analysis · July 2026

Want to follow ASML Holding?

We do not calculate a value here: ASML Holding does not generate cash flows you can project, and putting a number on it would be making it up. What you can do is follow it and tell us the price you care about — we will email you when it gets there.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.