ASML
ASML Holding
Semiconductors
Price today
$1,797
what the market pays
Worth
$860.48
calculated cycle value
Price is 109% above its value
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The only supplier in the world
ASML builds the machines that build the most advanced chips on the planet. Nobody else can make them — not Samsung, not TSMC, not Intel can do without them.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
5-year cycle
Money made year by year
This business has cycles — good years and bad years. That's why we don't use just the last year.
We use the average of those 5 years as the base for the math — not the good year, not the bad year. That way the value reflects what the company makes steadily.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 11 peers
You pay 70.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 58.2x.
53% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (33x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $860.48 per share. Today's price of $1,797.40 is 52% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 109% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $817.46.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$688.38
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$817.46
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$1,797.40
-52% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Without their machines, not a single cutting-edge chip gets made.
ASML builds the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines that etch the finest circuits onto the most advanced chips. It sells each machine for hundreds of millions; the new High-NA ones run around $370M per unit. It also charges recurring service and maintenance on the installed base.
Absolute EUV monopoly: nobody else in the world builds these machines. Behind it lie decades of R&D, an irreplaceable supply chain (Zeiss optics, Cymer lasers), and brutal engineering complexity. The record backlog of €38.8B is proof customers have no alternative.
Revenue history
From $22.6B to $40.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $32.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $71 goes to costs and operations; $29 is left as net profit (29% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Record backlog of €38.8B in Q4 2025, double the estimate.
2026 guidance of €34-39B in revenue.
High-NA EUV at $370M per unit, adopted by Intel, Samsung, and TSMC.
The MATCH Act (April 2026) could restrict DUV sales to China, ~15% of revenue.
Semiconductors are cyclical by nature: demand swings up and down hard.
Extreme customer concentration in TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.
Charlie's note
“A monopoly with 53% gross margin deserves respect, and paying 33x doesn't insult it. But the chip cycle always sends the bill sooner or later; better to step in when the market's in a bad mood, not euphoric.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for ASML Holding?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $817.46 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.