BABA

BABA

Alibaba

China

★ Quality 9/100
Overvalued

Price today

$113.24

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What this business is made of

9qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheet *Pricing powerReinvestment
* This axis is an estimate: we don't have the figure that measures it for this company.

The business

China's shopping mall that now also sells picks and shovels for AI.

Alibaba runs China's largest digital commerce ecosystem (Taobao, Tmall) and the country's leading cloud. It charges merchant commissions, advertising, and cloud services on a usage basis. Cloud grew double digits, driven by AI demand for its Qwen model.

Network effect in commerce with hundreds of millions of repeat buyers and integrated Cainiao logistics. In cloud, domestic scale and in-house chips give it a cost edge over local rivals. The moat is real but erodible: PDD and Douyin are eating its e-commerce share.

Revenue history

$134.6B
2022
$126.5B
2023
$130.4B
2024
$137.3B
2025
$143.5B
2026
CAGR 5 años: +1%

From $134.6B to $143.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $148.4B · FY2026

Cost of sales$89.3B · 60%
Operations and taxes$44.1B · 30%
Net profit$15.0B · 10%

Of every $100 in sales, $90 goes to costs and operations; $10 is left as net profit (10% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Alibaba Cloud accelerating to >18% YoY with operating margin rising on AI mix.

Buybacks: $35B program running through March 2027, cutting shares ~5% annually.

Spin-offs and monetization of non-core assets (Sun Art, Intime already sold) freeing up capital.

⚠️

VIE structure: shareholders don't own the Chinese operations, only contractual rights.

⚠️

Trump tariffs and U.S.-China tension could force delisting or secondary sanctions.

⚠️

Aggressive competition from PDD and Douyin pressures take-rate and domestic commerce margins.

Charlie's note

Paying 17x for China's biggest commerce moat and a cloud growing double digits with AI isn't demanding; the risk isn't the price but PDD and Douyin continuing to gnaw at share, so you're paid for patience while the 8% growth and 38% margin prove the moat holds.

Analysis · May 2026

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