BB
BlackBerry
Hybrid Industrial
Price today
$9.04
what the market pays
Worth
$5.21
calculated cycle value
Price is 73% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $5.21 per share. Today's price of $9.04 is 42% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 73% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $4.95.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$4.17
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$4.95
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$9.04
-42% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
QNX is the certified nervous system of 255 million cars.
BlackBerry sells embedded software: QNX, the operating system running in 255 million cars, and SecureComms for governments and defense. QNX charges per-vehicle royalties plus development licenses; a $950M backlog gives 3.5 years of visibility.
QNX is ISO 26262 ASIL-D certified, the automotive functional-safety standard that takes years to earn. Once an OEM integrates it into their platform, switching means recertifying the entire stack. That's why the gross margin is 84%.
Revenue history
From $0.7B to $0.6B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $549M · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $90 goes to costs and operations; $10 is left as net profit (10% margin).
Catalysts and risks
QNX FY2026 guides $268M (+14% YoY) with 27% EBITDA margin.
QNX backlog of $950M converting into revenue 2026-2029.
Operational separation of QNX and SecureComms already executed — pure-play valuation.
Weak auto cycle delays OEM SOP (start-of-production) programs.
SecureComms remains a mature business with no real growth.
Competition from Android Automotive and embedded Linux in non-critical segments.
Charlie's note
“You pay a demanding multiple for a business that took years to earn ASIL-D certification and charges 84% gross margin on top of a recertification moat; with a backlog that provides real visibility, the only virtue required here is waiting for the price to respect that quality.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for BlackBerry?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $4.95 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.