BBDC
Banco Bradesco
Bank / BV
★ Quality 31/100Price today
$3.47
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What this business is made of
The business
A heavyweight in Brazil's banking oligopoly fighting for second place.
Brazil's second-largest private bank. Earns credit spread, banking fees, insurance (Bradesco Seguros is ~30% of profit) and asset management. Network of ~2,800 branches plus digital banking.
Domestic scale and a cheap-deposit franchise in a five-bank Brazilian oligopoly. The moat is real but not premium: Itaú executes better and delivers 21.6% ROAE versus Bradesco's 15.2%.
Revenue history
From $17.8B to $19.6B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Catalysts and risks
3-year strategic plan: ROAE target approaching 18% by 2026.
Selic rate-cut cycle: eases delinquency in the SME and consumer loan book.
P/BV re-rating from 1.27x toward 1.5-1.6x if the restructuring delivers.
Turnaround plan still in execution; one weak quarter and the market punishes it.
Itaú and Nubank keep eating share in digital banking and retail credit.
Brazilian real and macro cycle: the USD investor takes on FX that can wipe out returns.
Charlie's note
“You pay 1.6x for an oligopoly bank growing 12% but yielding 15.2% while Itaú pulls 21.6%: a modest multiple for a real franchise that executes worse than its neighbor. Reasonable, not a giveaway; here patience matters more than haste.”
Analysis · May 2026
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