BDX
Becton Dickinson
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 20/100Price today
$153.10
what the market pays
Worth
$31.51
calculated cycle value
Price is 386% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$77.78
per share
How it's calculated
Becton Dickinson — high assistant line (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 27.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
61% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10.7x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $7.28/share × 10.7x multiplier minus $46.27 in negative net cash = $31.51 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $153.10 is 79% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 386% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $29.93.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$25.21
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$29.93
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$153.10
-79% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The needle every hospital re-orders every week.
Becton Dickinson makes the boring, essential stuff of medicine: syringes, catheters, infusion systems, and diagnostics. It sells $21.8B a year, mostly single-use consumables the hospital re-orders every week. Gross margin is 45% and it generates $2.7B in free cash flow.
The moat lives in switching costs and regulation. A hospital won't redesign its protocols or recertify suppliers to save pennies on a needle. Scale and the distribution network help, but it's not a monopoly: it competes against capable players.
Revenue history
From $20.2B to $21.8B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $21.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $92 goes to costs and operations; $8 is left as net profit (8% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Spin-off of the Biosciences and Diagnostics business announced for late 2026, aiming to unlock value.
Paying down the $17.6B in debt with the $2.7B annual FCF improves the multiple.
Over 50 consecutive years raising the dividend — a Dividend King that keeps lifting the payout.
$17.6B in debt against only $0.6B in cash: little room for mistakes.
Revenue growth of 3%: this horse doesn't run, it trots.
Hospital pricing pressure and exposure to FDA regulatory recalls.
Charlie's note
“Paying 10.69x for a medical-consumables business that gets re-ordered every week, with a 45% gross margin and a real switching-cost moat, is buying quality at a sensible price; the 3% growth calls for patience, not euphoria.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Becton Dickinson?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $29.93 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.