BX
Blackstone Inc.
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 65/100Price today
$124.99
what the market pays
Worth
$50.50
calculated cycle value
Price is 147% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$63.25
per share
How it's calculated
Blackstone Inc. — high assistant lane (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 23.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
54% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10.8x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $5.85/share × 10.8x multiplier minus $12.75 in negative net cash = $50.50 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $124.99 is 60% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 147% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $47.97.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$40.40
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$47.97
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$124.99
-60% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The tollbooth on institutional money: capital locked up for 10 years paying fees.
Blackstone is the world's largest alternative asset manager, with over $1.1 trillion under management across private equity, credit, real estate, and infrastructure. It charges management fees (~1.5% recurring on AUM) plus performance fees when funds beat their target return. The recurring business pays the bills; the variable one makes the good years.
The brand and track record are the asset: 40 years convincing pension funds and sovereign wealth funds to hand over capital locked up for 10 years. That permanent capital generates fees impossible to replicate without decades of history. The moat isn't in patents, it's in accumulated institutional trust.
Revenue history
From $22.6B to $14.5B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $14.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $79 goes to costs and operations; $21 is left as net profit (21% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Migration to the retail/wealth channel: BX is aiming to capture capital from individual investors, an $80B+ market that's barely penetrated.
Fed rate cuts in 2025-2026 reactivate exits and unlock retained performance fees.
Growth in the private credit segment, which already exceeds $400B in AUM and grows at double digits annually.
Revenue collapsed from $22.6B (2021) to $8.5B (2022): performance fees disappear when markets fall.
Debt of $12.6B against cash of $2.6B; the model depends on open, cheap capital markets.
No strong structural moat: if the track record cools off, institutional capital looks for another door.
Charlie's note
“They charge fees on other people's money and take a cut of the gains — a beautiful business when the tide is rising. The problem is the tide goes out, and then the numbers remind you this isn't an annuity.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Blackstone Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $47.97 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.