BX
Blackstone Inc.
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 67/100Price today
$136.15
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What this business is made of
The business
The tollbooth on institutional money: capital locked up for 10 years paying fees.
Blackstone is the world's largest alternative asset manager, with over $1.1 trillion under management across private equity, credit, real estate, and infrastructure. It charges management fees (~1.5% recurring on AUM) plus performance fees when funds beat their target return. The recurring business pays the bills; the variable one makes the good years.
The brand and track record are the asset: 40 years convincing pension funds and sovereign wealth funds to hand over capital locked up for 10 years. That permanent capital generates fees impossible to replicate without decades of history. The moat isn't in patents, it's in accumulated institutional trust.
Revenue history
From $22.6B to $14.5B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $14.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $79 goes to costs and operations; $21 is left as net profit (21% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Migration to the retail/wealth channel: BX is aiming to capture capital from individual investors, an $80B+ market that's barely penetrated.
Fed rate cuts in 2025-2026 reactivate exits and unlock retained performance fees.
Growth in the private credit segment, which already exceeds $400B in AUM and grows at double digits annually.
Revenue collapsed from $22.6B (2021) to $8.5B (2022): performance fees disappear when markets fall.
Debt of $12.6B against cash of $2.6B; the model depends on open, cheap capital markets.
No strong structural moat: if the track record cools off, institutional capital looks for another door.
Charlie's note
“They charge fees on other people's money and take a cut of the gains — a beautiful business when the tide is rising. The problem is the tide goes out, and then the numbers remind you this isn't an annuity.”
Analysis · June 2026
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