C
Citigroup
Bank / BV
★ Quality 27/100Price today
$132.77
what the market pays
Worth
$102.00
calculated TBV value
Price is 30% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $102.00 per share. Today's price of $132.77 is 23% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 30% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $96.90.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$81.60
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$96.90
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$132.77
-23% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The pipes moving $5 trillion daily across corporate borders.
Citigroup is a global universal bank: corporate banking, markets, treasury services for multinationals, and U.S. consumer banking. Its crown jewel is Treasury & Trade Solutions, which moves $5 trillion daily for corporate clients in 90+ countries.
The real moat is in TTS: a cross-border network impossible to replicate without decades of banking licenses and corporate relationships. The rest of the bank competes without clear advantages against JPMorgan or Bank of America.
Revenue history
From $75.5B to $81.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $85.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $83 goes to costs and operations; $17 is left as net profit (17% margin).
Catalysts and risks
The Fraser plan targets ROE 11-12% by 2026, up from 6.8% today.
Sale of Banamex (Mexico) frees up capital and simplifies the balance sheet.
Aggressive buybacks while trading below book value ($99 BV).
Bank turnarounds fail more often than they succeed; Fraser is the fourth CEO attempting it.
Regulatory fines for risk-control deficiencies keep surfacing.
A global recession hits trading, consumer credit, and corporate banking all at once.
Charlie's note
“Buying a mediocre bank below book value can work if management executes. We've spent 15 years waiting for Citi to execute — patience has an opportunity cost.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Citigroup?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $96.90 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.