CB
Chubb
Insurance / BV
★ Quality 34/100Price today
$341.52
what the market pays
Worth
$251.67
calculated TBV value
Price is 36% above its value
charlieapp.co
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $251.67 per share. Today's price of $341.52 is 26% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 36% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $239.09.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$201.34
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$239.09
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$341.52
-26% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
A disciplined collector who invests other people's money before calmly paying it back.
Chubb insures property, casualty, life, and corporate risks across more than half the world. It earns two ways: underwriting with discipline (collecting more in premiums than it pays in claims and expenses) and investing the float —the cash from premiums it hasn't paid out yet—. With a loss ratio (claims / premiums) near 50%, underwriting alone already leaves margin.
Decades of claims data and a premium brand let it price better than the competition and turn down bad business. That cultural discipline —saying no— isn't copied with capital, it's built with patience.
Revenue history
From $40.9B to $59.4B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $59.4B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $83 goes to costs and operations; $17 is left as net profit (17% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Revenue growing from $40.9B (2021) to $59.4B (2025): almost 50% in four years.
High interest rates fatten the invested float's yield with no underwriting effort.
Hardening rates in commercial insurance let it raise prices while keeping the loss ratio low.
Natural catastrophes (hurricanes, wildfires) can wreck a quarter all at once.
The rate cycle softens: when everyone competes on price, margins evaporate.
Reserves miscalculated today are losses that show up years later.
Charlie's note
“Paying 1.37x book for a 14% ROE is paying a fair price for real quality, not a giveaway. The discipline is worth the multiple; demanding a discount here is waiting for rain in the desert.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Chubb?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $239.09 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.