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Cadence Design Systems

Recurring SaaS

★ Quality 94/100
Overvalued

Price today

$292.70

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A monopoly position

This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.

What this business is made of

94qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing power *Reinvestment
* This axis is an estimate: we don't have the figure that measures it for this company.

The business

Without Cadence, designing a chip is like building a skyscraper without blueprints.

Cadence sells the software (EDA) used to design and verify chips before they're manufactured. It charges for recurring multi-year licenses, so ~80% of its revenue is contracted in advance. In 2025 it billed $5.3B with $1.6B in FCF.

Designing a modern chip without Cadence or Synopsys is like building a skyscraper without blueprints. Engineers train on their tools for years, and switching risks million-dollar delays in tape-out. The duopoly with Synopsys controls the critical flow, and the cost of getting it wrong means nobody switches just to save money.

Revenue history

$3.0B
2021
$3.6B
2022
$4.1B
2023
$4.6B
2024
$5.3B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +15%

From $3.0B to $5.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $5.3B · FY2025

Costs and operations$4.2B · 79%
Net profit$1.1B · 21%

Of every $100 in sales, $79 goes to costs and operations; $21 is left as net profit (21% margin).

Catalysts and risks

AI chip design boom: hyperscaler clients designing their own silicon raise demand for EDA and prices per seat.

Growth in the hardware/IP and emulation segment, which already contributes hundreds of millions and is climbing double digits.

Contracted backlog over $6B that provides revenue visibility for 2026.

⚠️

Demanding multiple: at 28x FCF, the market already prices in years of perfect growth.

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Geographic concentration in China under the risk of U.S. export controls.

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Dependence on the semiconductor investment cycle; if designers cut R&D budgets, renewals cool off.

Charlie's note

A beautiful business: a mandatory toll to make chips, no debt and cash to spare. The problem isn't the quality, it's the price they're asking for it. At 19% growth the story adds up; the day it drops to 10%, the multiple hurts.

Analysis · June 2026

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