CINF
Cincinnati Financial
Insurance / BV
★ Quality 40/100Price today
$180.46
what the market pays
Worth
$138.22
calculated TBV value
Price is 31% above its value
charlieapp.co
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $138.22 per share. Today's price of $180.46 is 23% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 31% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $131.31.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$110.58
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$131.31
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$180.46
-23% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Collect today, pay later, and invest the difference with the patience of an independent agent.
Cincinnati Financial insures property, casualty, and life in the U.S., leaning on a network of independent agents. It makes money two ways: underwriting with discipline (collecting more in premiums than it pays in claims and expenses) and investing the float—the cash from premiums not yet paid out in claims. With a loss ratio (claims over premiums) near 67%, the underwriting business earns before you even count the investments.
Its edge is the deep relationship with thousands of independent agents who give it preferred business and underwriting data built up over decades. That loyalty and that track record of risk selection can't be bought with advertising; they're built agent by agent, year after year.
Revenue history
From $9.6B to $12.6B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $12.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $81 goes to costs and operations; $19 is left as net profit (19% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Steady growth in net earned premiums up to $10.0B, a sign of disciplined share gains.
Total revenue rising from $10B (2023) to $12.6B (2025), supported by firmer rates and better float returns.
ROE of 15%, enough to compound book value without diluting shareholders.
Exposure to catastrophes (storms, hail, fires) that can spike the loss ratio in a single quarter.
Soft rate cycle: if competitors cut prices, underwriting discipline becomes painful.
Investment portfolio loaded with stocks, which adds volatility to book value when the market falls.
Charlie's note
“Paying 1.37x book value for a 15% ROE is an honest price for honest quality: neither a gift nor a folly. The arithmetic of someone who doesn't fool himself.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Cincinnati Financial?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $131.31 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.