CMCSA
Comcast
Content / Subscription
★ Quality 33/100Price today
$23.89
what the market pays
Worth
$57.73
calculated cycle value
Price is 59% below its value
charlieapp.co
Unusually large discount. A gap this wide usually means the market is pricing in a risk (AI disruption, for example) that the model does not penalise. A contrarian opportunity: high upside, but high risk — not an obvious one.
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Content and entertainment
$78.83
per share
How it's calculated
Comcast — high assistant lane (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Content / Subscription · vs 6 peers
You pay 8.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 18x.
75% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (14.2x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $5.53/share × 14.3x multiplier minus $21.10 in negative net cash = $57.73 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $23.89 is 142% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 59% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $46.18.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$46.18
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$54.84
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$23.89
+142% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Comcast is the cable buried under your house: nobody digs another one next to it.
Comcast sells connectivity and content: broadband and cable (Xfinity), the NBCUniversal network, theme parks, and the streaming service Peacock. It charges recurring month-to-month subscriptions to ~32 million households, plus advertising and tickets. 2025 revenue: $123.7B, with $21.9B in free cash flow.
The cable infrastructure covers millions of households and would cost a fortune to duplicate — nobody's going to dig another network next to it. Broadband is the business that rules: high margins and customers who don't switch easily. Content and parks are decent extras, not the core.
Revenue history
From $116.4B to $123.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $123.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $84 goes to costs and operations; $16 is left as net profit (16% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Epic Universe in Orlando opened May 2025; first full year of park revenue in 2026.
Buybacks and dividend: returned more than $13B to shareholders in 2024, with a dividend that's grown 17 years straight.
Stabilization of Peacock losses as it raises prices and subscribers toward profitability.
The broadband business is losing subscribers to the telecoms' fixed wireless internet.
$93B in debt against $9.5B in cash — manageable with the FCF, but it limits maneuvering room if rates rise.
Pay-TV cable bleeds out every quarter; cord-cutting isn't stopping.
Charlie's note
“Fourteen-and-change times earnings for a business barely growing at 2% isn't a gift, but the broadband moat is real: nobody's going to dig another network next to it. You're paying reasonable quality at a reasonable price, and that calls for patience, not excitement.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Comcast?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.