CME
CME Group
Platform / Network
★ Quality 57/100Price today
$253.08
what the market pays
Worth
$287.63
calculated cycle value
Price is 12% below its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$275.37
per share
How it's calculated
CME Group — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 20.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 28.5x.
14% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (23.7x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Discounted?
Its free cash flow is $11.64/share × 23.7x multiplier plus $12.26 in net cash = $287.63 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $253.08 is 14% below value — a moderate discount, a good spot to enter gradually.
The price is 12% off the calculated value. Close, but without the ideal discount.
It's fine to buy in pieces. Monthly DCA works well here.
For a bigger safety margin, wait for $230.10 or less.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$230.10
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$273.25
-5% off Value
🟡 Today
$253.08
+14% Valor
Discounted
The price is close to value. There's no big discount, but it's reasonable to invest in pieces.
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
CME is the casino where the world hedges: it sets the table and takes a cut of every chip.
CME Group runs the world's largest derivatives markets: futures and options on interest rates, indexes, energy, metals, and agriculture. It charges a fee for every contract traded and cleared, plus revenue from market data. In 2025 it billed $6.5B with $4.2B in FCF — it turns nearly two-thirds of every dollar of revenue into free cash.
It's a liquidity network: traders go where the volume is, and volume goes where the traders are. Breaking that loop takes decades. On top of that, CME clears its own contracts, so a buyer is locked into its ecosystem from day one. Zero debt, $4.4B in cash — it needs no one.
Revenue history
From $4.7B to $6.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $6.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $37 goes to costs and operations; $63 is left as net profit (63% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Sustained rate volatility after the Fed cycle raises the volume of rate contracts, its largest category.
Growth in regulated crypto products (Bitcoin and Ether futures) captures fresh institutional flow.
Annual variable dividend policy: with $4.1B of net income in 2025, the special payout tends to surprise to the upside.
Revenue depends on volume: a flat, volatility-free market dries up its best fee source.
Competition from new exchanges and platforms looking to fragment liquidity, especially in digital derivatives.
Regulatory risk: changes to clearing or margin rules can alter the business economics.
Charlie's note
“A toll on the fear and greed of the financial world. Brutal margin, zero debt, and every crisis sends it more traffic. At 23 times cash flow they're not giving anything away, but network monopolies rarely come cheap.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for CME Group?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.