CMG

CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill

Dividend / Cash flow

★ Quality 80/100
Overvalued

Price today

$36.96

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See what it is worth

charlieapp.co

What this business is made of

80qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing power *Reinvestment
* This axis is an estimate: we don't have the figure that measures it for this company.

The business

Chipotle is an assembly line that serves burritos the same way 3,700 times.

Chipotle sells burritos and bowls across more than 3,700 locations, nearly all company-owned — no franchises. Revenue of $11.9B in 2025, with store margins few in restaurants can match. They earn on volume and speed: the line moves, the ticket climbs.

The real moat is operational, not brand: brutal unit economics with stores that recover the investment fast and a short menu that simplifies the kitchen. It's not a monopoly — anyone can sell a burrito. The difference is doing it 3,700 times with the same discipline.

Revenue history

$7.5B
2021
$8.6B
2022
$9.9B
2023
$11.3B
2024
$11.9B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +12%

From $7.5B to $11.9B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $11.9B · FY2025

Costs and operations$10.4B · 87%
Net profit$1.5B · 13%

Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Plan to reach 7,000 locations in North America — doubling the current base.

Chipotlanes (digital drive-thru) in most new openings, lifting margin per store.

Same-store sales growth with pricing and digital levers on the 35%+ of online orders.

⚠️

Demanding valuation: the market is already paying for two decades of perfect growth.

⚠️

Food safety risk — a serious outbreak cost them years of trust once.

⚠️

Protein and labor inflation compresses margins if they can't raise prices without losing traffic.

Charlie's note

An excellent business at an excellent-business price — that's the problem. Paying 16x for FCF growing at 12% leaves little margin for error, and I'd rather buy greatness when nobody wants the burrito.

Analysis · June 2026

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Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.