CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 76/100Price today
$33.25
what the market pays
Worth
$21.18
calculated cycle value
Price is 57% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$20.92
per share
How it's calculated
Chipotle Mexican Grill — high assistant lane (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 25.3x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
37% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (16x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $1.31/share × 16.0x multiplier plus $0.26 in net cash = $21.18 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $33.25 is 36% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 57% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $20.12.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$16.94
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$20.12
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$33.25
-36% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Chipotle is an assembly line that serves burritos the same way 3,700 times.
Chipotle sells burritos and bowls across more than 3,700 locations, nearly all company-owned — no franchises. Revenue of $11.9B in 2025, with store margins few in restaurants can match. They earn on volume and speed: the line moves, the ticket climbs.
The real moat is operational, not brand: brutal unit economics with stores that recover the investment fast and a short menu that simplifies the kitchen. It's not a monopoly — anyone can sell a burrito. The difference is doing it 3,700 times with the same discipline.
Revenue history
From $7.5B to $11.9B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $11.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Plan to reach 7,000 locations in North America — doubling the current base.
Chipotlanes (digital drive-thru) in most new openings, lifting margin per store.
Same-store sales growth with pricing and digital levers on the 35%+ of online orders.
Demanding valuation: the market is already paying for two decades of perfect growth.
Food safety risk — a serious outbreak cost them years of trust once.
Protein and labor inflation compresses margins if they can't raise prices without losing traffic.
Charlie's note
“An excellent business at an excellent-business price — that's the problem. Paying 16x for FCF growing at 12% leaves little margin for error, and I'd rather buy greatness when nobody wants the burrito.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Chipotle Mexican Grill?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $20.12 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.