CMI
Cummins
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 54/100Price today
$560.75
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What this business is made of
The business
Cummins sells the engine once and the parts for decades.
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel and natural gas engines, power generation systems, and components for trucks, industrial equipment, and mining. It charges for equipment sales plus a recurring stream of parts and aftermarket service. 2025 revenue: $33.7B.
The moat lives in the installed base: millions of engines that need parts and maintenance for decades. Emissions regulations make it costly to enter, and truck makers have been specifying Cummins for generations. It's not a wide moat — the 25% gross margin says so.
Revenue history
From $24.0B to $33.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $33.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $92 goes to costs and operations; $8 is left as net profit (8% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Accelera division (electrolysis and hydrogen) scaling toward profitability by 2027.
Fuel-agnostic X15 engine with mass production from 2026-2027.
Fleet renewal pre-buy ahead of new EPA 2027 rules on heavy trucks.
Cyclical business tied to heavy trucks and construction: a recession cuts orders fast.
Transition to electric threatens the diesel core; Accelera still burns cash.
Net Income reported at ~$0B in 2025 signals extraordinary charges worth auditing.
Charlie's note
“A good cyclical business sold at an excellent-business price rarely pays off. At 14.7x with a 25% margin and no wide moat, you're paying for the brand and praying for the cycle.”
Analysis · June 2026
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