COIN
Coinbase Global
Cyclical Exchange
Price today
$173.89
what the market pays
Worth
$144.18
calculated cycle value
Price is 21% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $144.18 per share. Today's price of $173.89 is 17% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 21% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $136.97.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$115.34
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$136.97
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$173.89
-17% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Coinbase is crypto's regulated bank: it charges for trust, not code.
Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. It charges transaction fees ($4.46B/year, cyclical) and generates recurring revenue from subscriptions and services ($2.72B), including interest on USDC ($60B+ in circulation) and ~1M Coinbase One subscribers.
A regulated brand in a sector where trust is worth more than technology. Dominant institutional custody in the U.S., and the USDC deal with Circle gives it an interest stream that doesn't depend on the price of bitcoin. The moat is real but not impenetrable: spot fees tend toward zero over time.
Revenue history
From $7.8B to $7.2B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $7.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Net cash of $11.3B ($42/share) as a structural floor against downturns.
Subscription revenue growing double digits, independent of the crypto cycle.
S&P 500 inclusion (May 2025) widens the base of institutional buyers.
Fee compression: the average spot fee keeps falling every quarter.
Dependence on interest rates for USDC revenue — if the Fed cuts, that stream shrinks.
Brutal cyclicality: in a bear market, transaction revenue can drop 60-70%.
Charlie's note
“You pay a demanding multiple for a business whose half breathes to the rhythm of bitcoin and whose spot fees walk toward zero; the regulated brand and the USDC stream are a real moat, but here you get paid for the patience of waiting for the cycle to hand you the price, not for chasing after it.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Coinbase Global?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $136.97 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.