COIN
Coinbase Global
Cyclical Exchange
★ Quality 16/100Price today
$184.64
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What this business is made of
The business
Coinbase is crypto's regulated bank: it charges for trust, not code.
Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. It charges transaction fees ($4.46B/year, cyclical) and generates recurring revenue from subscriptions and services ($2.72B), including interest on USDC ($60B+ in circulation) and ~1M Coinbase One subscribers.
A regulated brand in a sector where trust is worth more than technology. Dominant institutional custody in the U.S., and the USDC deal with Circle gives it an interest stream that doesn't depend on the price of bitcoin. The moat is real but not impenetrable: spot fees tend toward zero over time.
Revenue history
From $7.8B to $7.2B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $7.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Net cash of $11.3B ($42/share) as a structural floor against downturns.
Subscription revenue growing double digits, independent of the crypto cycle.
S&P 500 inclusion (May 2025) widens the base of institutional buyers.
Fee compression: the average spot fee keeps falling every quarter.
Dependence on interest rates for USDC revenue — if the Fed cuts, that stream shrinks.
Brutal cyclicality: in a bear market, transaction revenue can drop 60-70%.
Charlie's note
“You pay a demanding multiple for a business whose half breathes to the rhythm of bitcoin and whose spot fees walk toward zero; the regulated brand and the USDC stream are a real moat, but here you get paid for the patience of waiting for the cycle to hand you the price, not for chasing after it.”
Analysis · May 2026
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