COR
Cencora
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 75/100Price today
$310.57
what the market pays
Worth
$309.51
calculated cycle value
Price is 0% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$326.44
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 45 peers
You pay 19.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.5x.
0% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (19.9x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why does Charlie give it 19.9x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 26.5x. This one drops from there:
4% margin. it earns on volume, not margin; it can't raise prices at will.
Monopoly position. an edge so strong that replicating it would take decades.
Reinvests at high returns. every dollar it reinvests earns far above its cost.
That's why it's worth 19.9x, less than the 26.5x average.
Why Fair price?
Its free cash flow is $16.43/share × 19.9x multiplier minus $16.93 in negative net cash = $309.51 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $310.57 is just 0% off that value — not cheap, not expensive, that's a fair price.
This is a quality business. The price reflects that quality.
There's no extra safety margin. Not the best time to buy new.
To enter with a margin, the price should drop to $247.61–$294.03.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$247.61
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$294.03
-5% off Value
⚪ Today
$310.57
-0% Valor
Fair price
Good business at a fair price. If you already own it, holding makes sense. For a new position, wait for a better price.
“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
La tubería por donde pasa casi toda la medicina de Estados Unidos.
Cencora (antes AmerisourceBergen) es una de las tres grandes distribuidoras de fármacos de EE.UU.: compra medicinas a los laboratorios y las reparte a farmacias, hospitales y clínicas. Gana centavos por caja, pero mueve $321 mil millones al año — el volumen lo es todo.
Tres empresas controlan cerca del 90% de la distribución de medicamentos en EE.UU. La escala logística y los márgenes de 4% son la mejor cerca: nadie quiere entrar a un negocio donde ganas cuatro centavos por dólar y necesitas una red nacional de bodegas para hacerlo. Los contratos de largo plazo con laboratorios y farmacias cierran la puerta.
Revenue history
From $213.9B to $321.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $321.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $99 goes to costs and operations; $0.5 is left as net profit (0.5% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Auge de medicamentos GLP-1 (Ozempic, Wegovy) inflando los volúmenes de distribución.
Fármacos especializados y oncológicos: el segmento que más crece y mejor paga.
Envejecimiento poblacional en EE.UU.: más recetas cada año, sin importar el ciclo económico.
Walgreens pesa cerca de un tercio de los ingresos — una sola relación que puede doler mucho.
Acuerdo por opioides: unos $6.4 mil millones a desembolsar durante casi dos décadas.
Con margen bruto de 4%, cualquier tropiezo operativo se siente amplificado.
Charlie's note
“Un negocio que gana cuatro centavos por dólar y aun así compone al 11% — el volumen hace el trabajo sucio. A cerca de 20 veces su caja libre pagas un precio sensato por una de las tres tuberías de la farmacia gringa; lo de los opioides ya está casi digerido.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Cencora?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $294.03 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.