COST

COST

Costco

Dividend / Cash flow

★ Quality 64/100
Overvalued

Price today

$915.74

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charlieapp.co

What this business is made of

64qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

The business

Costco doesn't make money on what it sells inside; it makes money on the entry pass.

Costco runs membership warehouse clubs: 924 giant warehouses where 81 million members pay an annual fee to buy at rock-bottom prices. The margin on product is barely 13%, almost token; the real profit lives in the membership fees, which drop almost entirely to the bottom line.

Member renewal runs around 93% and delivers the bulk of operating profit. That loyalty comes from a simple pact: sell genuinely cheap, don't squeeze the customer. A rival would take decades to build the same purchasing scale and the same trust; the thin margin isn't a weakness, it's the moat.

Revenue history

$195.9B
2021
$227.0B
2022
$242.3B
2023
$254.5B
2024
$275.2B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +9%

From $195.9B to $275.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $275.2B · FY2025

Cost of sales$239.9B · 87%
Operations$25.0B · 9%
Taxes and other$2.3B · <1%
Net profit$8.1B · 3%

Of every $100 in sales, $97 goes to costs and operations; $3 is left as net profit (3% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Membership fee increase in September 2024 (to $65 in the U.S.), an almost pure profit lever.

Opening 25-30 new warehouses per year, with growing focus outside the U.S.

Recurring special dividends thanks to positive net cash.

⚠️

Trades near 50 times earnings; the market already pays for the quality up front.

⚠️

A weakened consumer slows discretionary spending and new member sign-ups.

⚠️

Margin of only 13%: any stumble in costs or logistics weighs quickly.

Charlie's note

Extraordinary business at an extraordinary business price. Paying near 50 times for a compounder growing at 9% with 93% renewal isn't crazy, but it's no gift either. Here patience is charged at the door.

Analysis · July 2026

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