CRWD
CrowdStrike
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 54/100Price today
$189.00
what the market pays
Worth
$200.88
calculated cycle value
Price is 6% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$182.98
per share
How it's calculated
#1 cybersec. ARR $5.25B (+24%). 97% retention. NO C13. P/FCF ~80x demanding. WAIT. ATTRACTIVE <$200.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 27.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 20.3x.
7% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (29x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Discounted?
Its free cash flow is $6.31/share × 29.0x multiplier plus $17.90 in net cash = $200.88 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $189.00 is 6% below value — a moderate discount, a good spot to enter gradually.
The price is 6% off the calculated value. Close, but without the ideal discount.
It's fine to buy in pieces. Monthly DCA works well here.
For a bigger safety margin, wait for $160.70 or less.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$160.70
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$190.84
-5% off Value
🟡 Today
$189.00
+6% Valor
Discounted
The price is close to value. There's no big discount, but it's reasonable to invest in pieces.
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
A single sensor that watches every computer in the company, and charges a subscription for it.
CrowdStrike protects computers and servers against cyberattacks with its Falcon platform, a single lightweight software you install once and manage from the cloud. It charges an annual subscription per module; annual recurring revenue already tops 5 billion, growing 24%.
A single agent powers dozens of modules: the more customers it has, the more attacks it sees, and the better it protects everyone. Switching security providers is scary and a lot of work, so 97% of customers stay. Not yet an unavoidable toll, but getting close.
Revenue history
From $1.5B to $4.8B in 4 years — nearly 3.2x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Catalysts and risks
ARR (annual recurring revenue) of $5.25 billion growing 24%.
Customers adopting more modules: each one raises spending with no new sales cost.
FCF of $1.3 billion with a 75% gross margin.
The July 2024 global outage showed that a self-inflicted bug can ground planes and banks.
Microsoft gives away built-in security and pressures prices from above.
Reports a net loss; accounting profitability still depends on curbing stock-based spending.
Charlie's note
“Top-tier business: grows 22%, retains nearly everything, and generates real cash. But paying close to 80 times free cash flow for something I value at 29 times is inviting bad luck. Excellent company, impatient price.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for CrowdStrike?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.